Европейские экономические настроения в апреле 2020 года: флэш оценки, риски, прогнозы
The article describes in detail the economic consequences of a coronavirus attack for the European region. The authors analyzed the main barriers to rapid economic recovery, the effects of the European Commission's anti-crisis actions, short-term trends, forecasts of international organizations, and risks. According to the authors, many anti-crisis measures were taken in the region too gradually and heterogeneously across countries. Economic uncertainty and risks are still high. The divergence of countries is increasing. The authors also presented an overview of all well-known indicators of business cycles that reflect the economic sentiments of entrepreneurs and consumers in the European Union (EU) and the euro area. The results of surveys, both harmonized for all EU countries and conducted by international and national organizations, indicate that all negative trends that characterize the “economic anxiety” of European managers and consumers have begun to slow down. The paper presents the main differences in both short-term quantitative statistics and the sentiments of economic agents across countries, which significantly limit the overall effect of the recovery on the economy of the region.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.