Труды 10-й международной научно-практической конференции студентов и аспирантов "Статистические методы анализа экономики и общества" (14-17 мая 2019 г.)
The article analyzes the current natural gas pricing system in Russia and suggests directions for its transformation, taking into account the situation in the economy and the energy sector. The methodology is based on the methods of system analysis using economic and mathematical optimization modeling of the energy sector and the economy. The authors show that the current gas pricing system in the country limits the development of competition, does not allow to increase the efficiency of economic sectors and to modernize the energy sector. Mechanisms of gas exchange trading, which were created in the country, do not reflect the state of the market. Under these conditions, it is necessary to implement a set of measures that will allow creating a transparent pricing system based on market principles and reflecting the real situation in the consuming sectors. The gas industry can become a tool to stimulate economic development. The increase in gas prices would allow to create conditions for modernization, leading to GDP growth due to the expansion of orders for the Russian industry from the energy and consuming sectors. At the same time, increased efficiency helps to contain the growth of consumer spending, while increased tax revenues from the gas industry would make it possible to avoid the growth of other taxes on consumers, which could be inevitable due to the expected decline in revenues from the oil industry. In parallel, objective conditions would be created for the development of inter-fuel competition, and the gas industry itself will become a more at-tractive segment for investment.
The paper argues that when developing an explanatory model of the early-stage entrepreneurial activity level (measured by total index of early entrepreneurial activity - TEA) one should consider the ‘path dependency’ of the ‘institutional matrix’ of different societies. Otherwise one could wonder why some theoretical models of TEA determining factors, as provided by a lot of studies, are not statistically significant for younger market systems and entrepreneurship in transitional economies. However, comparing Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) data with the scope of official statistics provides a deeper insight into adults’ intrinsic incentives to become entrepreneurial. A statistical analysis of national TEA levels does not support the thesis that TEA levels, and structure, change under economic slowdown. Therefore, it seems logical to suggest that to interpret the TEA level it is important to examine some fundamental specific of different types of national markets rather than just the actual economic situation itself. When testing this hypothesis, the authors compared the characteristics of GEM countries with stable, high or low TEA levels. A Fisher’s linear discriminant analysis (FLDA) is used to examine whether different groups of countries can be distinguished by linear combinations of predictor variables and to determine which variables are responsible for this separation. The FLDA model explains the parabolic form of the relation between the level of economic development and TEA. A database of independent variables includes some different quantitative, ordinal and nominal variables determining the context of the national capital accumulation history. Using FLDA, we argue, one might foresee future tendencies of TEA - not only for GEM participating countries.
The paper describes the results of years action of the Constitution of the Russian Federation, determines the need to continue the development of the constitutional provisions, on the historical example shows the need for constitutional development in the constitutional dialogue.