Перспективы развития транспортного комплекса : материалы II Международ. заоч. науч.-практ. конф. (Минск, 4–6 окт. 2016 г.)
The technique of creation of imitating model of planning potrebno is considered сти in spare parts for repair and equipment service (in particular, cars). As basis for creation of model the stream of refusals and function vosstano undertakes vleniye. Further on the basis of laws of distribution of random variables of practices between refusals calculate number of refusals for the planned period and planned the consumer nost in spare parts, according to a standard method. It is offered also at creation of model of a stream of refusals of a rolling stock of motor transport to consider a complex of repair influences which treat: major maintenance unit, major maintenance of the car, write-off of the unit or write-off. The concrete example of modeling of a non-stationary stream of refusals is shown is put pour the car Monte Carlo's method.
The issue of forecasting demand for liquid fuels has become particularly significant in recent years with technological development and much tougher inter fuel competition in the transport sector. In future, these developments could radically transform the oil, gas, and electricity markets. Therefore there is a greater need for improved forecasting methods that take into account the dynamics of market factors, primarily those related to the use of new technologies. We analyse the difficulties of forecasting demand for liquid fuels in conditions of uncertainty related to future technological developments in car transport. We classify the technologies driving demand for motor fuels by the nature of their impact on the demand for petroleum products: technologies aimed at improving the energy efficiency of traditional cars, as well as drivers of inter-fuel competition, both in terms of direct and indirect substitutes for petroleum products. To resolve the problem of limited input information, the methodology incorporates clustering instruments, which enable us to group countries according to certain criteria. The use of economic and mathematical tools with optimizing units enables us to make integrated calculations that model the market for liquid fuels and assess its interactions with the markets of other energy resources. Our proposed system for forecasting demand for liquid fuels, including petroleum products, can be used as an instrument to assess the future impact of technological innovation on the development of the oil industry when carrying out Foresight studies.
This volume presents new results in the study and optimization of information transmission models in telecommunication networks using different approaches, mainly based on theiries of queueing systems and queueing networks .
The paper provides a number of proposed draft operational guidelines for technology measurement and includes a number of tentative technology definitions to be used for statistical purposes, principles for identification and classification of potentially growing technology areas, suggestions on the survey strategies and indicators. These are the key components of an internationally harmonized framework for collecting and interpreting technology data that would need to be further developed through a broader consultation process. A summary of definitions of technology already available in OECD manuals and the stocktaking results are provided in the Annex section.