Влияние реального обменного курса рубля на экономическую активность в России
The article presents an empirical investigation of the impact of the Balassa-Samuelson effect on the real ruble appreciation in 1999-2007. We consider long-run, supply-side determinants of the real ruble exchange rate, such as changes in terms of trade and labor productivity. Using Russian and German data on price and productivity differentials between tradable and non-tradable sectors of the two economies, we estimate the significance of oil price shocks and the Balassa-Samuelson effect for the real ruble appreciation. Our study demonstrates that, on average, about 1/3 of the observed appreciation can be attributed to the Balassa-Samuelson effect. The cointegrating relationship between the productivity differential and the real exchange rate provides evidence of the healthy nature of the economic growth, which took place in Russia during the time period under investigation. These findings suggest that exchange rate adjustments should be used by the Central Bank of Russia mainly as a monetary policy instrument for fighting inflation rather than as a tool for competitive devaluations.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.