The article presents an empirical investigation of the impact of the Balassa-Samuelson effect on the real ruble appreciation in 1999-2007. We consider long-run, supply-side determinants of the real ruble exchange rate, such as changes in terms of trade and labor productivity. Using Russian and German data on price and productivity differentials between tradable and non-tradable sectors of the two economies, we estimate the significance of oil price shocks and the Balassa-Samuelson effect for the real ruble appreciation. Our study demonstrates that, on average, about 1/3 of the observed appreciation can be attributed to the Balassa-Samuelson effect. The cointegrating relationship between the productivity differential and the real exchange rate provides evidence of the healthy nature of the economic growth, which took place in Russia during the time period under investigation. These findings suggest that exchange rate adjustments should be used by the Central Bank of Russia mainly as a monetary policy instrument for fighting inflation rather than as a tool for competitive devaluations.
The paper analyzes the impact of changes in tax regimes on comparative export profitability of oil and main petroleum products. It considers the dynamics of export profitability of oil and petroleum products based on the annual data for 2001—2010, the quarterly data for 2011 and through the first quarter of 2012. The paper also examines how the forthcoming changes in tax legislation aimed at increasing the complexity of refining affect the profitability of oil sector exports. The analysis demonstrates that tax measures alone are not sufficient and might even be counterproductive.
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of public investment programs on the socio-economic development of territories. As a case, the federaltarget programs for the development of regions and investment programs of the financial development institution — Vnesheconombank, designed to solve the problems of regional development are considered. The impact of the public interventions were evaluated by the “difference in differences” method using Bayesian modeling. The results of the evaluation suggest the positive impact of federal target programs on the total factor productivity of regions and on innovation; and that regional investment programs of Vnesheconombank are improving the export activity. All of the investments considered are likely to have contributed to the reduction of unemployment, but their implementation has been accompanied by an increase in interregional inequality.
The stability of Russian banking sector is threatened by three negative tendencies - overheating of the credit market, significant decrease of banks capital adequacy ratios, and growing problems associated with banks lending to affiliated non-financial corporations. The co-existence of these processes reflects the crisis of the model of private investments in Russian banking sector, which was observed during the last 20 years. This paper analyzes the measures of the Bank of Russia undertaken to maintain the stability of the banking sector using the methodology of credit risk stress-testing. Based on this methodology we conclude that the Bank of Russias actions can prevent the overheating of the credit market, but they can also lead to undesirable effects: further expansion of the government ownership in Russian banking sector and substitution of domestic credit supply by cross-border corporate borrowings. The later weakens the competitive positions of Russian banks. We propose a set of measures to harmonize the prudential regulation of banks. Our suggestions rely on design and further implementation of the programs aimed at developing new markets for financial services provided by Russian banks to their corporate and retail customers. The estimated effects of proposed policy measures are both the increase in profitability and capitalization of Russian banks and the decrease of banks demand for government support.
Every thirty minutes a person dies in a road traffic accident in Russia. Twenty five thousands die annually, which is equivalent of the middle-populated city in the country. According to Traffic Police Statistics in ten times more people turned out to wounded or disabled in the result of road accidents. In order to reduce the number of deaths in the car accidents it is necessary to implement specific measures, which cost a lot. That is why the relevance of more specific evaluation of socio-economic national losses which arises because of death, disablement and traumatism in the road traffic accidents is pointed out. To make this possible authors have worked out the efficient methodology for estimation of socio-economic national losses as a result of road accidents. In accordance with our analysis the whole amount of the value is 487.1 billion RUB in 2013.
The article describes the methodology for identifying and analyzing the economic cycles, which are based on historical spectral approach that combines the advantages of the historical and economic analysis and spectral method of the study of economic series.The proposed method is used to isolate and analyze of (both their own) regular oscillations of economic dynamics inherent in the developed economies, and the vibrations induced by technological and external economic shocks.
The analysis carried out on the basis of data on the dynamics of the post-war U.S. economy as the main recipient world cycles, and economy of Russia from 1861 to 2012 with using the latest research on the reconstruction of its economic dynamism. Finally, conclusions are drawn in relation to the economic policy of the state in the global cyclical development.
All world upward trends and cycles have a lot in common while crises significantly differ. In the case of this research the recession was sparked not by the shock of financial sector but by the restrictions imposed on consumption that previously was not inclined to fluctuate that much. Oil price shock has increased negative influence on the world energy market and economy overall. The decline in employment and personal consumption has struck more on most vulnerable social classes but the decreased volume of demand can be also attributed to the wealth (catering, tourism and others). Once began, the recession develops by its own rules — a sharp fall in the world trade, fixed capital formation, growth of budget deficits, and particularly strong impact on developing countries most dependent on tourism and financial assistance.
Keywords: pandemic, coronavirus, COVID-19, business cycle, social inequality, personal consumption, capital formation, finance.
JEL: A14, D11, F02, T32.
Using panel data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey for 2006—2014, the paper investigates reservation wages setting in the Russian labor market. The sample includes non-employed individuals wishing to get a job (both searchers and non-searchers). The first part of the paper provides a survey of previous empirical studies, describes data and analyzes subjective estimates of reservation wages in comparison with various objective indicators of actual wages. The analysis shows that wage aspirations of the majority of Russian non-employed individuals are overstated. However their wage expectations are rather flexible and decrease rapidly as the search continues that prevents high long-term unemployment. The second part of the paper provides an econometric analysis of main determinants of reservation wage and its impact on probability of re-employment and wages on searchers’ new jobs.
Using panel data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey for 2006—2014, the paper investigates reservation wages setting in the Russian labor market. The second part of the paper provides an econometric analysis of main determinants of reservation wages. It shows that personal characteristics, household income, unemployment duration and characteristics of local labor markets are important factors that affect reservation wage setting. The findings also indicate that non-employed individuals with higher reservation wages have higher probability of re-employment and receive higher wages on their new jobs. A general conclusion is that Russian workers set reservation wages in economically rational way taking into account their real prospects in the labor market.
The issues to be discussed at the panel included: can past experience of economy recovery following crises of 1998 and 2008 be helpful at present; what sectors were driving growth of the Russian economy in the last decade, and are they able to perform this role in the future; what growth rate is feasible in 2021; what amendments to the national projects aimed at boosting growth are likely. In addition to that the panel participants specified key factors affecting productivity and output trends in Russia, suggested ways to support economy in the course of “coronacrisis”, and pointed out to economic policy measures that could accelerate economic growth.