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Regular version of the site
Of all publications in the section: 8
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Article
Korotayev A., Grinin L. World Futures: Journal of General Evolution. 2012. Vol. 68. No. 7. P. 471-505.

In a previous article, The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future (Grinin and Korotayev 2011), it was preliminarily demonstrated that the turbulent events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World may well be regarded as a start of the global reconfiguration. The subsequent events have confirmed this supposition. That is why in the present article we develop this important theme. The article offers a thorough analysis of the internal conditions of Arab countries on the eve of revolutionary events, as well as causes and consequences of the Arab Revolutions. The article also offers an analysis of similar historical World System reconfigurations starting with the sixteenth-century Reformation. The analysis is based on the theory (developed by the authors) of the periodical catch-ups experienced by the political component of the World System that tends to lag behind the World System economic component. Thus, we show that the asynchrony of development of various functional subsystems of the World System is a cause of the synchrony of major political changes. In other words, within the globalization process, political transformations tend to lag far behind economic transformations. And such lags cannot constantly increase, the gaps are eventually bridged, but in not quite a smooth way. The article also suggests an explanation why the current catch-up of the World System political component started in the Arab World.

Added: Feb 4, 2013
Article
Zinkina J. V., Korotayev A. World Futures: Journal of General Evolution. 2014. No. 70/2. P. 120-139.

Our article draws attention to a crucial factor frequently omitted from the global development agenda, namely the explosive population growth inevitably expected in Tropical Africa in the nearest decades as a result of the region’s laggardness in fertility transition. Population doubling (or even tripling) in the next decades can seriously undermine the development prospects of Tropical African countries and lead to sociopolitical destabilization or even large-scale violent conflicts with possibly global consequences. Bringing down the population growth rates (mainly through substantially reducing the fertility rates) appears to be crucial for the achievement of the 1977 “Goals for Mankind,” as well as the Millennium Development Goals, and, as we proceed to show, can be most effectively achieved through substantially increasing female secondary education, which, in turn,should be achieved by introducing compulsory secondary education and making it the first-rate development priority.

and lead to sociopolitical destabilization or even large-scale violent conflicts with possibly global consequences. Bringing down the population growth rates (mainly through substantially reducing the fertility rates) appears to be crucial for the achievement of the 1977 “Goals for Mankind,” as well as the Millennium Development Goals, and, as we proceed to show, can be most effectively achieved through substantially increasing female secondary education, which, in turn, should be achieved by introducing compulsory secondary education and makin

Added: Oct 7, 2014
Article
Grinin L. E. World Futures: Journal of General Evolution. 2009. Vol. 65. No. 7. P. 477-506.

The title of this article unites two rather important notions – “macroevolution” and “the World System”. Those notions are used by different theories but they are intrinsically connected. We understand social macroevolution as a term denoting an important dimension of social evolution that includes a series of the most significant evolutionary transformations. It appears important to emphasize that the World System genesis and a series of its subsequent transformations can be regarded as nodal elements of the social macroevolutionary process. What is more, the World System formation was not only the most important result of all the preceding socioevolutionary macroprocesses, it was also a sort of borderline, beyond which it is totally necessary to distinguish the social macroevolution as a special suprasocietal component of social evolution (that is the one that does not pertain exclusively to any particular society). The main characteristics of macroevolution, such as irreversibility and directionality are manifested in the World System transformations.

Added: Oct 15, 2014
Article
Korotayev A., Grinin L. E. World Futures: Journal of General Evolution. 2009. Vol. 65. No. 7. P. 477-506.
Added: Mar 7, 2013
Article
Sidorkin A. M. World Futures: Journal of General Evolution. 2004. Vol. 60. No. 3. P. 183-194.
Added: Sep 16, 2013
Article
Korotayev A., Grinin L. E. World Futures: Journal of General Evolution. 2011. Vol. 67. No. 8. P. 531-563.

 

In the previous article “The Coming Epoch Of New Coalitions: Possible scenarios of the near future” it was preliminarily demonstrated that the turbulent events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World may well be regarded as a start of the global reconfiguration. The subsequent events have confirmed this supposition. That is why in the present paper we develop this important theme.

The article offers a thorough analysis of the internal conditions of Arab countries on the eve of revolutionary events, as well as causes and consequences of the Arab Revolutions. The article also offers an analysis of similar historical World System reconfigurations starting with the 16th century Reformation. The analysis is based on the theory (developed by the authors) of the periodical catch-ups experienced by the political component of the World System that tends to lag behind the World System economic component. Thus, we show that the asynchrony of development of various functional subsystems of the World System is a cause of the synchrony of major political changes. In other words, within the globalization process, political transformations tend to lag far behind economic transformations. And such lags cannot constantly increase, the gaps are eventually bridged, but in not quite a smooth way.

The article also suggests an explanation why the current catch-up of the World System political component started in the Arab World. In the previous article “The Coming Epoch Of New Coalitions: Possible scenarios of the near future” it was preliminarily demonstrated that the turbulent events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World may well be regarded as a start of the global reconfiguration. The subsequent events have confirmed this supposition. That is why in the present paper we develop this important theme.

The article offers a thorough analysis of the internal conditions of Arab countries on the eve of revolutionary events, as well as causes and consequences of the Arab Revolutions. The article also offers an analysis of similar historical World System reconfigurations starting with the 16th century Reformation. The analysis is based on the theory (developed by the authors) of the periodical catch-ups experienced by the political component of the World System that tends to lag behind the World System economic component. Thus, we show that the asynchrony of development of various functional subsystems of the World System is a cause of the synchrony of major political changes. In other words, within the globalization process, political transformations tend to lag far behind economic transformations. And such lags cannot constantly increase, the gaps are eventually bridged, but in not quite a smooth way.

The article also suggests an explanation why the current catch-up of the World System political component started in the Arab World. 

Added: Mar 7, 2013
Article
Knyazeva H. World Futures: Journal of General Evolution. 2004. Vol. 60. No. 5/6. P. 389-405.
Main principles of the complex nonlinear thinking which are based on the notions of the modern theory of evolution and self-organization of complex systems called also synergetics are under discussion in the article. The principles are transdisciplinary, holistic,and oriented to a human being. The notions of system complexity, nonlinearity of evolution, creative chaos, space-time definiteness of structure-attractors of evolution,resonant influences, nonlinear and soft management are here of great importance. In thisconnection, a prominent contribution made to system analysis and to a necessary reform of education and thinking by Edgar Morin is considered.
Added: Jan 22, 2014
Article
Knyazeva H. World Futures: Journal of General Evolution. 1999. Vol. 54. No. 2. P. 163-181.
In order to develop further the methods of scenario building and to facilitate the paths towards desirable and sustainable futures, we cannot do without a nonlinear evolutionary thinking. The theory of self-organization of complex systems, called also synergetics, is a scientific basis for such a thinking, the main principles of which are under considerationin the paper. Synergetics provides us with the knowledge of constructive principles of coevolution of the complex social systems, coevolution of countries and geopolitical regions being at different stages of development, integration of the East and the West, the North and the South.
Added: Jan 22, 2014