Importance The article considers the features of terrorist attacks, which have an impact on stock indices.It analyzes 117 terrorist attacks committed in different countries within 1988–2016. Objectives The research assesses how terrorist attacks influence stock index trends. It will enable market agents make better decisions and avoid excessive losses, reduce negative reaction of the market in general, and helpthe national financial system minimize the adverse consequences of terrorist attacks. Methods We employ historical-logical, graphical, statistical methods and a comparative analysis to describean impact of different aspects of terrorist attacks on the dynamics of stock indices. We also systematize analytical information in this area. Results The findings show that the impact of terrorist attacks on stock index dynamics depends on various factors, i.e. the number of victims, level of country’s economic development, day of terrorist attack, etc. We found out that the market trend before a terrorist attack had a significant influence on stock index movement after the attack.Terrorist attacks influence industries in a different way. Conclusions and Relevance Terrorist attacks mostly have a dramatic impact on the dynamics of stock indices. However, the influence is often insignificant and impermanent. Therefore, investors should refrain from ill-judged financial decisions to avoid losses. The findings may be useful for investors, market makers and other market participants.
mportance Having been adopted in 2015, personal insolvency regulations significantly influenced the supply structure in the lending market, and dramatically changed banks' approaches to dealing with difficult customers, especially in consumer lending. Objectives The research analyzes strengths and weaknesses credit institutions face as a result of the enforcement of personal insolvency regulations, nature of changes in banks and debtors' interaction models, and transforms principles of lending policies in line with existing economic realities. Methods I apply methods of logic, economic analysis to study banking risks associated with insolvency of individual borrowers. Results I fundamentally evaluate principles of personal bankruptcy laws so as to determine possible banking risks at each stage of bankruptcy proceedings. Having analyzed cause-and-effect perspectives, I identified procedural and economic difference of debt restructuring processes and sale of debtors' property that took place as part of bankruptcy proceedings. Conclusions and Relevance The adoption of bankruptcy regulations will make banks be more tolerable to troubled borrowers seeking for debt restructuring. Banks seldom exercise their entitlement for suing bankrupt debtors, since this reduces interest, other income and the amount to be repaid. The analysis unravels the personal insolvency procedure in terms of vulnerable aspects and allows to understand advantages banks may enjoy if they deal with borrowers without initiating bankruptcy litigations.
Importance The article focuses on the neural network forecasting in the film-making industry. Objectives The article examines what opportunities economic and mathematical modeling provides to forecast revenue and profit from coming movie distribution and identifies factors that determine whether film-making business becomes a commercial success. Methods The economic and mathematical model relies upon the neural network trained with available historical data on movie distribution and including 20 input parameters. Computer experiments were performed with the ‘freezing’ method. We used the neural network for computations if any of input data changes, meanwhile the rest of them remain the same. Results Root-mean-square relative error of the model accounted for 13.8 percent, with the coefficient of determination being 0.86 percent. We refer to The Da Vinci Code, Star Wars to demonstrate what the model is capable of. Conclusions and Relevance A virtual increase in the film budget influences projections of box-office grosses and revenue differently. Other aspects of films also have an effect on the film-making success. Having conducted computer experiments, we provided our recommendations, which could boost box-office grosses of films. The proposed economic and mathematical model can be used to optimize financial costs and choose parameters to plan new films to come. The model allows for forecasting box-office grosses and profit from film-making, and examines how various aspects influence the commercial result of film-making.
Subject The article discusses the existing methods to model the term structure of default probability and their drawbacks affecting the practical use. Objectives The research is aimed to make effective suggestions to creditors on setting the technique to evaluate the probability of the corporate borrower's default, considering a changeable term before the loan deal ends, without contradicting IFRS 9 – Financial Instruments. Methods The research represents the economic and statistical analysis, optimizes aspects of special distributions based on statistical data of rating agencies. Results I refer to consolidated empirical data of rating agencies on the corporate sector to substantiate the two-parameter formula of term structure of default probability, which does not contradict IFRS 9 with respect to corporate borrowers. In this case, internal bank data are insufficient to build the separate internal model PD Lifetime or this process is too arduous. Conclusions and Relevance I substantiate the default probability term structure formula, which is best in the pool of fitting distributions, being calibrated with empirically and statistically representative external data of rating agencies, covering a 44-year period. The formula is explicit, without implying complex calculations. The formula may prove useful in calculating the rate of reserves for loan assets, with their terms being coordinated with the principle lending mechanism (SPPI test) with respect to the second impairment phase under the classification given in IFRS 9.
Almost all of the technologies that are now part of the cloud paradigm existed before, but so far the market has not been proposals that bring together emerging technologies in a single commercially attractive solution. However, in the last decade, there were public cloud services, through which these technologies, on the one hand, available to the developer, and on the other - it is clear to the business community. But many of the features that make cloud computing attractive, may be in conflict with traditional models of information security.
Due to the fact that cloud computing bring with them new challenges in the field of information security, it is imperative for organizations to control the process of information risk management in the cloud. In this article on the basis of Common Vulnerability Scoring System, allowing to determine the qualitative indicator of exposure to vulnerabilities of information systems, taking into account environmental factors, we propose a method of risk assessment for different types of cloud deployment environments.
Information Risk Management, determine the applicability of cloud services for the organization is impossible without understanding the context in which the organization operates and the consequences of the possible types of threats that it may face as a result of their activities. This paper proposes a risk assessment approach used in the selection of the most appropriate configuration options cloud computing environment from the point of view of safety requirements. Application of risk assessment for different types of deployment of cloud environments will reveal the ratio counter possible attacks and to correlate the amount of damage to the total cost of ownership of the entire IT infrastructure of the organization.