Constant growth of spacecraft operating life requirements leads to creating equipment which fits these requirements. From this point of view, specifically durability prediction allows to evaluate the potential of creating equipment with a long operating life. On early stages of equipment’s development analytical methods of durability prediction are used. Obviously, the more precise the estimation is, the more likely that the practical test will confirm the durability predictions. Therefore, improving the engineering techniques of the durability prediction is a relevant problem.
The objective of this research is to improve the quality of design work by enhancing the engineering techniques of the durability prediction, which raise the authenticity of the evaluations.
Life of the equipment are calculated using the statistical modelling method (Monte-Carlo method). This method takes into consideration probabilistic characteristics of constituent elements’ life.
As a result, the problem of predicting operating life of electronic equipment using the reference data on early stages of development is solved. An analysis of standardized method of durability prediction was performed which revealed existing limitations for using this method when predicting operating life of electronic equipment. An alternate, statistical method of predicting operating life of electronic equipment was suggested and a software implementation was created. Developed software was tested and verified. Analytical experiments were performed to show the authenticity of the suggested method and to compare it to the standardized one.
Thus, results of the performed research show that the standardized method is applicable only for calculating the minimum operating time. Also, it was concluded that the truncation parameter of element’s life distribution, variation coefficient of life and some specific qualities of dependability prediction scheme have to be taken into consideration when predicting durability of electronic equipment.
In the paper was solved the task of prediction of fiber cable operating life for automating of design study of reliability of optical-fiber transmission system. The paper offers generation method of mathematical models of complex coefficients, which brings out from the input models failure rates the coefficients, which considers the effects of regimes and conditions of usage of fiber cables on the durability indices.
The developed procedure does not require carrying out the experimental investigations and tests, based on the using of standardized models of failure rates and durability characteristics of fiber cables. Herewith for the prescribed modes and terms of usage of fiber cables automatically detected the right process of degradation, which determines values of operating life.
In contrast to the prediction technique of equipment operating life on the base of the probabilistic-physical failure patterns, the offered method operates with the dates, which are stated in the standard-technical documentation on the fiber cables, and allows to increase forecast precision of the operating life in comparison with the methods, which is recommended in the branch standards.
In the paper were developed software, which implements offered mathematical tool, by which were solved real-world forecasting problem of the operating live of the cable type ОК-ПН-01-5-60.
The current period of creation of the electronic equipment of a responsible and special purpose is characterized by universal introduction of the Quality Management Systems at the enterprises developers and producers of electronic equipment. Quality Management System and its component – Dependability Management System are aimed at providing the guaranteed level of indicators of quality (including and dependability indicators).
In the reliability prediction method recommended by the Russian standards influence of procedures of Dependability Management System is considered with the help of «Coefficient Quality Production Equipment» (КА). This coefficient considers and reflects an average difference in failure rate of elements in the equipment developed and manufactured on requirements of various standard documentation (1 – for a complex of the standards «Moroz …» or 0,2 – for the situation «RK-…»).
However, such approach to forecasting reliability prediction of electronic equipment at the early design stages, based on use of average statistical data rather approximate. It doesn’t consider neither features of Dependability Management System of the concrete enterprise, nor completeness of the Support Reliability Program when developing.
Therefore more adequate approach to an assessment of value of the coefficient КА realized in methodology 217PlusTM is represented. According to this methodology when forecasting value of the coefficient КА are used not only statistical estimates, but also an expert assessment of Dependability Management System effectiveness during the developing and production of the equipment.
The article discusses all the features of application of methodology 217PlusTM for an assessment of the coefficient КА: mathematical model of multiple-factor coefficient of quality of production, analysis of influence of its components on the general level and functional model of reliability prediction process.