Применение агентного подхода к имитационному моделированию процесса распространения заболевания
The paper represents an application of agent based approach for simulation modeling as the new way to create epidemic models. It is much differed from common disease spreading simulation technique, which uses differential equations. The AnyLogic 6 agent based computer simulation model of the influenza spreading was created. The model allows making a short-range sickness rate forecast based on current morbidity statistics.
Continuous stochastic agent-based model of human behavior in a confined space with a given geometry is presented in the paper. An “exit front” is defined, also the flow characteristics of agents is studied, in particular, its intensity.
Nowadays simulation modeling is applied for solving a wide range of problems. There are simulations which require significant performance and time resources. To decrease overall simulation time a model can be converted to a distributed system and executed on a computer network. The goal of this project is to create a library enabling clear and rapid development parallel discrete event models in AnyLogic. The library is aimed for professionals in computer simulation and helps to reduce code amount. The project includes a research on different synchronization algorithms. In this paper we present techniques which can be used in creating distributed models. We present comparison of a single threaded model with a distributed model implementing optimistic algorithm. The comparison shows a significant improvement in wallclock time achieved by separating the model into independent submodels with minimal communications.
Purpose: It is very important to know the possibility of mathematical models to forecast epidemic spreading including characteristics of the epidemic peak. Design/methodology/approach: Three different mathematical models are applied to analyze the epidemic spreading. There are: 1) the Verhulst logistic equation, 2) generalized logistic equation, and 3) differential – difference equation. Results: Analytical solutions of the logistic-like equations are used to analyze the epidemic spreading, and their charac-teristics. The important question to determine the coefficients of the mathematical models using the data of infected patients on the initial stage is discussed. Area of applicability: The obtained results may be useful for the forecasting of the epidemic characteristics, including COVID-19.
The Autonomous Agents and MultiAgent Systems (AAMAS) conference series brings together researchers from around the world to share the latest advances in the field. It is the premier forum for research in the theory and practice of autonomous agents and multi-agent systems. AAMAS 2002, the first of the series, was held in Bologna, followed by Melbourne (2003), New York (2004), Utrecht (2005), Hakodate (2006), Honolulu (2007), Estoril (2008), Budapest (2009), Toronto (2010), Taipei (2011), Valencia (2012), Saint Paul (2013), Paris (2014), and Istanbul (2015). This volume constitutes the proceedings of AAMAS 2016, the fifteenth conference in the series, held in Singapore in May 2016.
In line with previous editions, AAMAS 2016 attracted submissions for a general track and five special tracks: Innovative Applications, Robotics, Embodied Virtual Agents and Human-Agent Interaction, Blue Sky Ideas track, and the JAAMAS presentation track. The special tracks were chaired by leading researchers in their corresponding fields: Onn Shehory and Noa Agmon chaired the Innovative Applications track, Francesco Amigoni and Roderich Gross the Robotics track, Tim Bickmore and Hannes Vilhjálmsson the Embodied Virtual Agents and Human-Agent Interaction track, and Frank Dignum the Blue Sky Ideas track. As a new initiative, the chairs of AAMAS 2016 also solicited articles published in the Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems for the JAAMAS Presentation Track. Only papers that have appeared in the Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-agent Systems (JAAMAS) in the 12 months period preceding the AAMAS notification date were eligible. This new track was chaired by Peter Stone.
Jointly with the PC chairs the special track chairs were responsible for appointing the Programme Committee (PC) members and the Senior Programme Committee members (SPC) for their tracks, and they made acceptance/rejection recommendations for their tracks in consultation with Programme Chairs based on input provided by the track PC, SPC, and Area Experts. This year the PC chairs introduced the new role of Area Experts, i.e., SPC members with additional responsibilities, to assist with selecting SPC members for specific research areas, identifying appropriate keywords, and assisting in potential issues during discussion phase. This new role was a success and increased the quality of our SPC and PC, and also the reviewing process in general.
Full paper submissions (8 pages plus bibliographic references) and Blue Sky Ideas paper submissions (4 pages plus references) were solicited for AAMAS 2016. Some of the full paper submissions were accepted as extended abstracts (2 pages). The papers were selected by means of a thorough review and discussion process, which included an opportunity for authors to respond to reviewer comments during a rebuttal phase. All SPC members, Area Experts, and Track Chairs followed and contributed to the technical discussions on the papers they were overseeing. The JAAMAS presentation Track submissions published as extended abstracts were handled by the track chair.
Overall, out of 550 submissions, 137 (25%) were accepted as full papers and 143 (26%) were accepted as extended abstracts. Additionally, all 16 JAAMAS track submissions were accepted.
Full papers were presented orally in 20 minute slots; all extended abstracts and, optionally, full papers were presented as posters during the conference.
Out of the 550 submissions, 351 (64%) had a student as the primary author, 82 of these were accepted as full papers (23%), and a further 90 (26%) were accepted as extended abstracts.
The proceedings also contain 17 Demonstration papers, 13 Doctoral Consortium papers, as well as abstracts of the invited talks and details of some of the awards given.
A model for organizing cargo transportation between two node stations connected by a railway line which contains a certain number of intermediate stations is considered. The movement of cargo is in one direction. Such a situation may occur, for example, if one of the node stations is located in a region which produce raw material for manufacturing industry located in another region, and there is another node station. The organization of freight traﬃc is performed by means of a number of technologies. These technologies determine the rules for taking on cargo at the initial node station, the rules of interaction between neighboring stations, as well as the rule of distribution of cargo to the ﬁnal node stations. The process of cargo transportation is followed by the set rule of control. For such a model, one must determine possible modes of cargo transportation and describe their properties. This model is described by a ﬁnite-dimensional system of diﬀerential equations with nonlocal linear restrictions. The class of the solution satisfying nonlocal linear restrictions is extremely narrow. It results in the need for the “correct” extension of solutions of a system of diﬀerential equations to a class of quasi-solutions having the distinctive feature of gaps in a countable number of points. It was possible numerically using the Runge–Kutta method of the fourth order to build these quasi-solutions and determine their rate of growth. Let us note that in the technical plan the main complexity consisted in obtaining quasi-solutions satisfying the nonlocal linear restrictions. Furthermore, we investigated the dependence of quasi-solutions and, in particular, sizes of gaps (jumps) of solutions on a number of parameters of the model characterizing a rule of control, technologies for transportation of cargo and intensity of giving of cargo on a node station.
Event logs collected by modern information and technical systems usually contain enough data for automated process models discovery. A variety of algorithms was developed for process models discovery, conformance checking, log to model alignment, comparison of process models, etc., nevertheless a quick analysis of ad-hoc selected parts of a journal still have not get a full-fledged implementation. This paper describes an ROLAP-based method of multidimensional event logs storage for process mining. The result of the analysis of the journal is visualized as directed graph representing the union of all possible event sequences, ranked by their occurrence probability. Our implementation allows the analyst to discover process models for sublogs defined by ad-hoc selection of criteria and value of occurrence probability
Existing approaches suggest that IT strategy should be a reflection of business strategy. However, actually organisations do not often follow business strategy even if it is formally declared. In these conditions, IT strategy can be viewed not as a plan, but as an organisational shared view on the role of information systems. This approach generally reflects only a top-down perspective of IT strategy. So, it can be supplemented by a strategic behaviour pattern (i.e., more or less standard response to a changes that is formed as result of previous experience) to implement bottom-up approach. Two components that can help to establish effective reaction regarding new initiatives in IT are proposed here: model of IT-related decision making, and efficiency measurement metric to estimate maturity of business processes and appropriate IT. Usage of proposed tools is demonstrated in practical cases.