• A
  • A
  • A
  • АБВ
  • АБВ
  • АБВ
  • A
  • A
  • A
  • A
  • A
Обычная версия сайта
  • RU
  • EN
  • HSE University
  • Publications
  • Articles
  • Will Global Aging Change the Rate of Technological Progress and Form a New Consumption Model?
  • RU
  • EN
Расширенный поиск
Высшая школа экономики
Национальный исследовательский университет
Priority areas
  • business informatics
  • economics
  • engineering science
  • humanitarian
  • IT and mathematics
  • law
  • management
  • mathematics
  • sociology
  • state and public administration
by year
  • 2028
  • 2027
  • 2026
  • 2025
  • 2024
  • 2023
  • 2022
  • 2021
  • 2020
  • 2019
  • 2018
  • 2017
  • 2016
  • 2015
  • 2014
  • 2013
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009
  • 2008
  • 2007
  • 2006
  • 2005
  • 2004
  • 2003
  • 2002
  • 2001
  • 2000
  • 1999
  • 1998
  • 1997
  • 1996
  • 1995
  • 1994
  • 1993
  • 1992
  • 1991
  • 1990
  • 1989
  • 1988
  • 1987
  • 1986
  • 1985
  • 1984
  • 1983
  • 1982
  • 1981
  • 1980
  • 1979
  • 1978
  • 1977
  • 1976
  • 1975
  • 1974
  • 1973
  • 1972
  • 1971
  • 1970
  • 1969
  • 1968
  • 1967
  • 1966
  • 1965
  • 1964
  • 1963
  • 1958
  • More
Subject
News
September 9, 2026
‘Balkan Hospitality Opens Doors: Studying Dialects on the Verge of Extinction
You cannot study spoken dialects from books. Instead, you need to go to a village, seek out its elders, and earn the trust of local residents before you can record hours of spontaneous stories. This is how Natalia Muravleva, Associate Professor at the Faculty of Humanities, conducts her research. Her internship in Serbia continued her long-standing study of dialects spoken by Macedonian settlers. In this interview, she discusses how diaspora cultural centres help researchers reach informants, why native speakers need to be interviewed only in their own language (otherwise, as she puts it, they may 'break'), and how a single field season helped her finalise her monograph. She also shares warm memories of autumn in Belgrade and of colleagues with whom grammar can be discussed in three languages at once.
September 9, 2026
Scientists Train Neural Network to Generate Process Plans from 3D Models
Researchers at the HSE FCS AI and Digital Science Institute have developed CAD2TechSpec, a framework that converts 3D models of mechanical parts into machining process plans—step-by-step instructions for machine tools. The solution aims to reduce the time required for the design and preparation of technical process documentation in mechanical engineering, aircraft manufacturing, and other high-tech industries. The study findings have been published in PeerJ Computer Science.
September 7, 2026
Biologists Discover 'Molecular Fingerprint' of Preeclampsia
Researchers at HSE University employed a new method to model hypoxia in placental cells during pregnancies complicated by preeclampsia and identified molecular markers of tissue hypoxia. Since hypoxia is one of the key mechanisms underlying preeclampsia, these findings are important for a more accurate and timely diagnosis of the disease and for the development of effective treatment methods. The paper has been published in Placenta.

 

Have you spotted a typo?
Highlight it, click Ctrl+Enter and send us a message. Thank you for your help!

Publications
  • Books
  • Articles
  • Chapters of books
  • Working papers
  • Report a publication
  • Research at HSE

?

Will Global Aging Change the Rate of Technological Progress and Form a New Consumption Model?

World Futures. 2024. Vol. 80. No. 3. P. 199–222.
Leonid Grinin, Anton Grinin, Andrey Korotayev

The article discusses how the pace of technological progress and economic model of society will change under the influence of global aging process. It tries to answer the following questions: What could be the driver of an acceleration of technological growth in the forthcoming decades? Is slowdown of technological growth likely to be observed afterwards? What could cause such a slow-down? How could this slowdown affect socioeconomic and sociopolitical relations? What is the relationship between global aging and technological progress? Why is global aging likely to be one of the most important factors affecting technological growth in the near future?

Research target: Political Science, International Relations, and Public Administration
Language: English
Full text
DOI
Text on another site
Keywords: forecastingconsumerismtechnological growth global aging
Similar publications
Анализ согласованности голосования стран ЕАЭС и ОДКБ в ГА ООН с помощью иерархической кластеризации
Вохминцев И. В., Вестник международных организаций: образование, наука, новая экономика 2026 Т. 21 № 2
The EAEU and the CSTO are Russia’s principal regional international organisations. Understanding, assessing, and analysing the foreign-policy positions of the countries that belong to them is a matter of the state’s national interests. This determines the purpose of the study: to identify the level and the form of cohesion in the voting of EAEU and ...
Added: September 7, 2026
Donald Trump and Radical Reconfiguration of the World-System in the Context of the World Order Transformation
Leonid Grinin, Anton Grinin, Korotayev A., Journal of World-Systems Research 2026 Vol. 32 No. 2 P. 391–420
The article analyzes the direction, mechanisms, and causes through which President Trump’s actions contribute to the destruction of the foundations of U.S. influence in the world and to the transformation of the world order. For almost two decades we have been observing such an important phenomenon as the reconfiguration of the WorldSystem, which means that ...
Added: September 7, 2026
Сравнительный анализ вступительных экзаменов в высшие учебные заведения: Гаокао (КНР) и Единый государственный экзамен (РФ)
Tkachuk A., Ларина О. А., Восточная аналитика 2026 Т. 17 № 2 С. 177–190
В статье рассматриваются две крупнейшие национальные системы отбора абитуриентов: китайский Гаокао (кит. упр. 高考, пиньинь gāokǎo) и российский ЕГЭ. Акту- альность исследования обусловлена тенденцией к унификации образовательных стан- дартов. В работе рассмотрены исторические предпосылки формирования обоих экза- менов, их структура, методы оценивания и сроки проведения, социальное восприятие, а также влияние на дальнейшее образование. Сделан вывод, ...
Added: September 6, 2026
The Evolving Landscape of Innovative Financing Instruments for New Technologies
Proskuryakova L. N., Asia-Pacific Tech Monitor 2026 Vol. 43 No. 2 P. 13–24
Innovative financing tools and models have proved their efficiency in supporting the adoption and scale-up of emerging technologies. They have been instrumental in different regions, including the Asia-Pacific region, which stands at the forefront of technological innovation. Studies point to several persistent emerging technological constraints that include high upfront capital costs, perceived risks, and limited ...
Added: September 1, 2026
Гражданская война в Судане: внутренняя динамика и роль внешних акторов
Ходунов А. С., Хайруллин Т. Р., Korotayev A., Контуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, право 2026 Т. 19 № 1 С. 159–178
The article is devoted to the civil war in Sudan, which has been going on for more than two years and has caused enormous casualties and destruction throughout the country. The vast majority of schools and hospitals have been destroyed or put out of operation, which has had an extremely negative impact on the development ...
Added: September 1, 2026
Рейтинг инновационного развития субъектов Российской Федерации. Выпуск 11
Abashkin V., Abdrakhmanova G., Artemov S. V. et al., ИСИЭЗ ВШЭ, 2026.
Одиннадцатый выпуск аналитического доклада, подготовленный Институтом статистических исследований и экономики знаний Национального исследовательского университета «Высшая школа экономики» в рамках деятельности Российской кластерной обсерватории, посвящен анализу инновационного развития российских регионов на основе комплекса рейтинговых оценок. Исследование базируется на системе показателей, характеризующих социально-экономические условия инновационной деятельности, научно-технический потенциал, уровни инновационной и экспортной активности, качество региональной инновационной политики. Используемые ...
Added: September 1, 2026
Обществознание
Ермоленко Г. А., Кожевников С. Б., М.: Эксмо, 2026.
Socio‑humanitarian knowledge helps to master the social norms and values of Russian civilization. Each module of social studies is linked to a specific sphere of human social life, to activities aimed at fulfilling a person’s spiritual needs and social interests. Recognizing the social nature of one’s own needs is an important step towards understanding oneself, ...
Added: August 31, 2026
Vanishing Vanguard: Decline of Leadership in Revolutionary Mass Mobilization since the 19th Century
Ustyuzhanin V., Zinkina J. V., Korotayev A., / Series "SocArXiv". 2026.
“Leaderlessness” is widely held to be a defining feature of contemporary mass mobilization, yet the claim rests on a handful of recent cases. We offer the first systematic cross-national analysis of this phenomenon from 1791 to 2019. We show that the absence of leadership is real but older and more modest than claimed: the share ...
Added: August 29, 2026
Теория партизана. Промежуточное замечание к понятию политического; Разговор о партизане
Шмитт К., Праксис, 2026.
The classic work of the famous German jurist and political theorist Carl Schmitt is devoted to reflections on the partisan as a "key figure in world history", starting with its appearance during the struggle of the Spanish people against the Napoleonic troops in 1808-1813 and ending with the consideration of historical destinies and the political ...
Added: August 28, 2026
Russo-Latin American Relations After 2022: Continuity and Change
Kosevich E., Problems of Post-Communism 2026 P. 1–21
Since 2022, the Kremlin has revised its foreign policy priorities. Russia’s traditional Western partners have been designated as “unfriendly countries,” and Moscow has increasingly focused on intensifying rapprochement with states in the Global South, with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), as the US’ closest neighbors, occupying a special place in this strategy. The region ...
Added: August 28, 2026
Демократия в эпоху социальных трансформаций: два различных подхода
Medushevsky A. N., Liberal.ru 2026
The Liberal Mission Foundation continues to introduce readers to new concepts of democracy and relevant publications. This discussion focuses on the challenges facing democracy in the era of globalization, as addressed in two recent books: *The Backsliders: Why Leaders Undermine Their Own Democracies* by S.C. Stokes (2025) and *Critical Theories and the Postsocialist Challenge: Race, ...
Added: August 26, 2026
Искусственный интеллект и этика будущего
Medushevsky A. N., Liberal.ru 2026
Today, more than ever before, the contribution of new technologies shapes the conditions of humanity's existence as a biological species, prompting a debate about its prospects for survival. This process of transformation—which spans every sphere of social and moral regulation, from family relations and child-rearing to the very meaning of life—is dividing public opinion between ...
Added: August 26, 2026
Воображаемые конституции: от полезной фикции до деструктивной утопии
Medushevsky A. N., Сравнительное конституционное обозрение 2026 Т. 35 № 2 (167) С. 4–29
In the context of the rapid changes in the modern world associated with globalization, informatiza tion, and the revision of ethical standards of mass behavior, legal theory faces a number of problems — the loss of consensus in understanding global constitutionalism, growing disagreements regard ing its values and principles, and unclear prospects for the future. ...
Added: August 26, 2026
Вопрос вопросов: может ли судья быть независим? Размышления о книге: Морщакова Т.Г. Судья вне зависимости. М. : Фонд «Президентский центр Б.Н.Ельцина», 2025
Medushevsky A. N., Сравнительное конституционное обозрение 2026 Т. 35 № 1 С. 53–77
Judges should be independent of politics, yet they are constantly ensnared by it. Politics haunts judges even where the full scope of constitutional guarantees for the separation of powers and an in dependent judiciary is in place, infiltrating the courtroom through variable interpretations of the val ues, principles, and norms of the constitution, the selection ...
Added: August 26, 2026
Следует ли повиноваться несправедливым законам? Моральный выбор в юриспруденции от Б.Н.Чичерина до современности
Medushevsky A. N., Российская юстиция 2025 № 11 С. 14–25
Globalization has exacerbated the eternal conflict between law and ethics: should national laws be respected when they conflict with universal international principles of human rights; should the law-abiding attitude operate in the same way in democracies and authoritarian states, and calls for emancipation take into account the degree of internal freedom of society and its ...
Added: August 26, 2026
Глобализация мирового социального пространства как ключевой фактор цивилизационного транзита
Nisnevich Y. A., Рябов А. В., Вопросы теоретической экономики 2026 № 3 С. 136–152
Th is article explores the transformation of global social space as a transition from a fragmented space to a holistic one characterized by globality, openness, and inclusiveness, as well as the interconnectedness of the globalization processes in cultural, economic, socio-communicative, and political spaces. Th e article identifi es the specifi c features of globalization in each of these ...
Added: August 24, 2026
Homo Americanus vs Homo Soveticus: Contemporary Russians’ and Americans’ Social Views on the Cold War Ideological Clichés
Рябова Т. Б., Клещенко Л. Л., Вестник Волгоградского государственного университета. Серия 4: История. Регионоведение. Международные отношения 2026 Vol. 31 No. 2 P. 165–177
Introduction. For the first time, the article examines the contemporary Russians’ and Americans’ social views on how the Soviet and US Cold War mass culture represented “us” and “them”. Materials and methods. The article is based on an analysis of data from an in-depth interview conducted in the USA and Russia (n = 27, autumn ...
Added: August 24, 2026
Декомпозиция и прогноз социальных настроений россиян (нейросетевой подход)
Karacharovskiy V., Ларина У. С., Резмерица А. А., Социологические исследования 2026 № 7 С. 60–75
Based on the neural network approach, the decomposition of the index of social mood in Russia for the period 2004-2024 was carried out and their dynamics for this period was modeled. The following issues are discussed: (a) the nature of the social mood' shocks in Russia, based on their connection with the concepts of politics ...
Added: May 14, 2026
Экономическая интеграция России и Беларуси: перспективы роста и обмена инновациями
Kopnova E., Журавлева К. А., Коряков И. В. et al., Журнал Белорусского государственного университета. Экономика 2025 № 1 С. 36–46
he article examines the prospects for economic cooperation between Russia and Belarus within the framework of the EAEU, SCO and BRICS integration associations, with an emphasis on the impact of sanctions and their consequences for the economic growth of the countries. The study includes the use of econometric modeling methods to evaluate the forecast of ...
Added: December 11, 2025
Development the reinforcement learning model for sources identification of H2S industrial emissions
Kychkin A., Chernitsin I., Vikentyeva O., , in: 2025 International Conference on Industrial Engineering, Applications and Manufacturing (ICIEAM).: IEEE, 2025. P. 987–991.
Industry 4.0 concept focuses on sustainability problem that requires to control air emissions, especially for harmful substances like H2S, and reduction their impact on nature by using environmental monitoring and sources identification systems. This task requires solving inverse problem of dispersion models, which should establish complex mathematical dependences between the sensor data, the location and ...
Added: November 4, 2025
Методы машинного обучения в макроэкономическом прогнозировании: предварительные итоги
Smirnov S. V., Вопросы экономики 2025 № 10 С. 131–154
The paper summarizes machine-learning (ML) methods most relevant to macroeconomics and assesses their performance in forecasting and nowcasting key macro indicators. Despite rapid methodological progress and a surge of publications over the past 25 years, gains in forecast accuracy with traditional statistical (economic, financial, and survey) data remain modest. ML models often outperform naïve and ...
Added: October 12, 2025
System Architecture of the Automated AI-driven Predictive Assessment for Environmental Monitoring in Industrial Areas
Kychkin A., Chernitsin I., Vikentyeva O., , in: 2025 International Russian Automation Conference (RusAutoCon).: IEEE, 2025. P. 1046–1050.
This paper presents system architecture of the automated AI-driven predictive assessment of the ecological state of the air in sanitary protection zones around industrial facilities. The developed solution implements automated pre-processing of data presented in the form of time series using machine learning methods and the construction of short-term forecasts of pollutant concentrations for the ...
Added: October 6, 2025
Анализ факторов, влияющих на управление денежными потоками предприятия
Чан Ф. Т., Староверова О. В., Kosov M., Аудиторские ведомости 2025 № 2 С. 129–134
This article is devoted to the study of factors affecting enterprise cash flow management. Methods of analysis and synthesis of peer-reviewed scientific sources on this issue are applied. As a result of the research, two groups of factors have been identified and systematized: objective factors (state economic policy, customer influence) and subjective factors (competence of ...
Added: September 22, 2025
Роль исторических эпох и символов в моделировании динамики и шоков социальных настроений в России
Karacharovskiy V., Социологические исследования 2025 № 6 С. 3–14
The article evaluates the possibility of forecasting mass social attitudes based on the interest of the population for the eras in the development of the country. Historical eras and their symbols are considered as comparison standards, temporal analogues of reference groups that provide the mass consciousness with samples of “reserve” standards of living and standards ...
Added: August 12, 2025
  • About
  • About
  • Key Figures & Facts
  • Sustainability at HSE University
  • Faculties & Departments
  • International Partnerships
  • Faculty & Staff
  • HSE Buildings
  • HSE University for Persons with Disabilities
  • Public Enquiries
  • Studies
  • Admissions
  • Programme Catalogue
  • Undergraduate
  • Graduate
  • Exchange Programmes
  • Summer University
  • Summer Schools
  • Semester in Moscow
  • Business Internship
  • Research
  • International Laboratories
  • Research Centres
  • Research Projects
  • Monitoring Studies
  • Conferences & Seminars
  • Academic Jobs
  • Yasin (April) International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development
  • Media & Resources
  • Publications by staff
  • HSE Journals
  • Publishing House
  • iq.hse.ru: commentary by HSE experts
  • Library
  • Economic & Social Data Archive
  • Video
  • HSE Repository of Socio-Economic Information
  • HSE1993–2026
  • Contacts
  • Copyright
  • Privacy Policy
  • Site Map
Edit