Модель вероятности банкротства банка как элемента устойчивости национальной банковской системы Российской Федерации
The author has analyzed the structure, role of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the banking system of the Russian Federation and identified the main directions of its activity. The notion of "stability of the national banking system of the Russian Federation" has been specified. The types, attributes of its stability, the methods of assessment of sustainability have been identified; its problems have been revealed on the basis of assessment of the major features. The author suggests a model of probability of the bank’s bankruptcy as an element of stability of the Russian Federation banking system.
The pace of global recovery remains weak. More than twelve months since the G-20 summit in Los Cabos, G-20 members are laboring their way towards “Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth” in a clouded world economic outlook, with the eurozone in a state of recession, a combination of policy stalemate and across the board fiscal consolidation constraining growth in the U.S., and emerging markets and developing countries experiencing a clear slowdown compared to their rapid pre-crisis expansion. A durable recovery that creates good jobs, which G-20 leaders agreed to cooperate for in September 2009, proves to be an elusive objective. Fiscal consolidation acts as a drag on economic recovery and the G-20’s capacity to deliver on the growth and jobs agenda is questioned by its citizens. This calls for the G-20 members’ commitment to a balanced and coordinated mix of policies and instruments, reflective of the state of their economies, which would gradually strengthen economic growth and promote macroeconomic stability. Responding to global and domestic priorities, Russia has placed growth and jobs at the core of the G-20 agenda within the fundamental question of what should be the main macroeconomic and financial policy requirements for growth.
Combination of the offered volume on the REPO auction with the Bank of Russia and the demand for it produce powerful signaling mechanism for the interbank money market. In order to have a possibility to emit an unintended signal there is a need for a robust estimator of the demand. This paper proposes an approach to produce such an estimator through an ensemble of logistic and linear regression models. This estimator successfully emulates many of the key features of the process.
The aim of the article is to model dynamics of risks and assess the cyclical effect of Basel II in the Russian banking system.
The study of the Russian securities market, its segments and paticipants in 2012.
The study of behavior of the Russian securities market, its segments and partiсipants in 2011.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.