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Structural Break Detection in Autoregressional Conditional Heteroskedasticity Model: Case of Student’s Distribution

Mathematical Models and Computer Simulations. 2023. Vol. 15. No. 4. P. 654–659.
D. A. Borzykh, A. A. Yazykov

Two methods of structural break detection in a piecewise generalized model of autoregressive
conditional heteroscedasticity are considered. The first method is based on Kolmogorov–
Smirnov statistics and is called the KS method. The second one is based on the cumulative sums and
is called the KL method. In this paper, the KS and KL methods are compared under the assumption
of Student’s conditional distribution of random errors. The results of our Monte Carlo experiments
are as follows: the KL method is inferior to the KS method both in terms of the average probability of
errors of the first type and in terms of the average power of detecting a structural break.

Research target: Mathematics
Language: English
Full text
DOI
Text on another site
Keywords: volatilitystructural breaksCUSUMICSSGARCH-tStructural shifts
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