Разработка и оценка концепции нового для компании туристического продукта
турпродукт, туристическое направление, прогнозирование спроса, анализ портфеля, анализ ассортимента, MDA-анализ, матрица БКГ, матрица McKinsey, Греция, Доминиканская Республика
The methodology of forecasting demand for the generic drugs manufacturer is proposed, a forecast hierarchy is developed. The forecasting business process model is proposed. An algorithm for forecasting process management is developed.
The authors propose a new statistical unconstraining method which is based on the construction of the distribution function for the censored demand and application of the maximum likelihood approach to estimate distribution parameters. Numerical results are presented of comparative analysis of existing unconstraining methods and the method advocated in the paper. It is demonstrated that the new method has proven to be more efficient in the case of a high percentage of observed censored elements of sample data. Yet another important advantage of the method connected to the fact that it enables one to process the situation of censoring information incompleteness when some elements of the observed sample data are known to be censored or not and for the others this information is not available. Mathematical computer environment Wolfram Mathematica has been used for obtaining all the results presented in the paper.
The forecast of passenger demand in Revenue Management is usually based on historical booking data that reflects the number of sales rather than true demand which is constrained by booking limits. That is why the process of demand forecasting under such circumstances is called unconstraining. The goal of every unconstraining approach is to get empirical or theoretical estimation of true demand. The application of the maximum likelihood method to unconstraining problems in Revenue Management is advocated in the paper based on the construction of the distribution function for the censored demand depending on availability of the censoring information. Numerical results are presented of comparative analysis of existing unconstraining methods and the method used in the paper. It is demonstrated that maximum likelihood method proves to be more efficient in case of high percentage of censoring. Another important advantage of the method connected to the fact that it enables one to process the situation of censoring information incompleteness when some elements of the observed sample data are known to be censored or not and for the others this information is not available. Mathematical computer environment Wolfram Mathematica has been used for obtaining all the numerical results presented in the paper.
The paper analyses the demand planning process from supply chain management perspective. The place of the analyzed process in SCOR and GSCF models is investigated. Main steps of the process are clarified: analysis and preparation of historical data; statistical forecasting; manual expert correction of the forecast; forecast verification and confirmation; quality monitoring of forecast and process. Approaches to process data organization are investigated; terminology in this area is presented. The key forecasting methods are analyzed including: qualitative/subjective, cause and effect, time series. Key forecasting models for demand planning in supply chains are systemized. The importance of the quality monitoring of forecasts is highlighted. Main methods of determination of exceptional situations are presented. Key requirements for informational systems of demand planning are formalized. Overview of popular software tools for demand planning is presented.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.