Механизмы распространения и усиления кризиса на примере финансового кризиса 2007-2008 гг.
The article presents a review of events in the financial market in 2007-2008. The author studies the interconnection between macroeconomic policy conducted by the USA monetary authorities since beginning of 1980-s till now, and the risks which have concentrated in the financial system and resulted in the crisis. The author specifies the mechanisms of the crisis deepening and broadening, and gives her own evaluation to them.
The paper presents a review of stochastic framework for term structure modeling and shows comparative advantages of commonly used techniques. The main application of the research is coherent modeling of credit and interest rate risk for Euro zone issuers.
This article presents an engineering approach to estimating market resiliency based on analysis of the dynamics of a liquidity index. The method provides formal criteria for defining a “liquidity shock” on the market and can be used to obtain resiliency-related statistics for further research and estimation of this liquidity aspect. The developed algorithm uses the results of a spline approximation for observational data and allows a theoretical interpretation of the results. The method was applied to real data resulting in estimation of market resiliency for the given period.
The proceedings from the 15th EDAMBA conference, which took place at the University of Economics in Bratislava on 22nd November 2012 have been prepared as a joint refereed publication of participants presenting their papers at the conference. The aim of EDAMBA as an organisation is to promote the exchange of information, to enhance the mobility of PhD candidates, to promote research cooperation and to increase the quality of PhD programmes and to create an environment of excellence with a European perspective while pursuing the existing diversity.
Curriculum vitae of the economist and philosopher J.M. Keynes is given. Some cogitative communications with other economists-theorists are traced
New revised edition of the classical text J.M. Keynes' "The General theory of employment, interest and money " 1936
In the paper some prominent features of a modern financial system are studied using the model of leverage dynamics. Asset securitization is considered as a major factor increasing aggregate debt and hence systems uncertainty and instability. A simple macrofinancial model includes a logistic equation of leverage dynamics that reveals origins of a financial bubble, thus corresponding closely to the Minsky financial instability hypothesis. Using ROA, ROE, and the interest rate as parameters, the model provides wide spectrum of leverage and default probability trajectories for the short and long run.
In most cases the ultimate goal of a bank is profit maximization. That depends on what derivatives one uses. Thus the objective of this research is to examine the relationship between a bank’s value and characteristics of derivatives it subscribed to. The financials from 2005 to 2010 of 130 European public banks countries are examined. The study is based on two sets of data: the
first one contains the accounting data on balance sheets and the profit and loss accounts from Bankscope from 2005 to 2010, while the second one includes the manually collected data from the notes to the financial statement disclosures. Regression analysis is used to trace the impact of derivative use on bank’s value. Time effects and cross-country differences are controlled for.
Two key research implications are as follows. The return on hedging derivatives is positively associated with the growth in bank’s stock returns, whereas trading derivatives’ notional value negatively impacts both Tobin’s q and ROAA, and positively impacts risk of the bank’s stocks.
In this paper following Ball (2012) I estimate the demand function for narrow money aggregate M1 in Russia for 2003-2012. I show that after inclusion of cash foreign exchange and relevant interest rate the money demand is stable in the long- and the short-run and estimated long-run elasticities and short-run dynamics of the money demand yields sensible values for the simple functional form. I also show that most of the short-run volatility of the money holding can be attributed to the slow speed of adjustment of the demand not to the unexplained shocks.
During 1998-2010 the National Research University – Higher School of Economics (Moscow) has been surveying the results of activities of most leasing market operators in Russia, including all the largest ones. The results of the scheduled annual analysis undertaken by us to survey the activities of leasing companies in the Russia indicate that the year 2010 was successful for the leasing business. According to the Leaseurope, and author’s data, Russia occupies the 5th place in Europe after Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, French. In practice many Russian leasing companies have managed not only to copy but also successfully to adapt the experience of the countries with developed leasing industries. Despite the growth in new business, account must be taken of the quality of the leasing portfolio. It turned out that it just got a little better as compared with the previous year. The analysis showed that cost of loans taken for financing leasing operations, as well as the cost of the funds of a leasing company, the funds of the lessee, the use of factoring, promissory notes/exchange bills, securities and other instruments, depends on a variety of factors, including: financial independence of leasing companies; the risks associated with the sale of a leasing product; the security for the transaction; the terms of depreciation of leased property, the terms of credit contract and of leasing contracts; the currency of the leasing transaction; whether the funds are borrowed on the domestic or on the international capital market; the schemes for carrying out a leasing operation, etc. With each year there the number of Russian leasing companies that can obtain financing directly from foreign banks grows. There is a growth in the volume of credit operations with the involvement of the national agencies for insurance of export-import operations, e.g. from Germany, Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, the USA and other countries. Securitisation of leasing assets held at the junction of four financial tools – lending, leasing, factoring, securities issues. This innovative mechanism that requires subtle scientific and practical configuration achieves remarkable economic performance update, modernisation and re-equipment of enterprises. The author has developed a system of securitisation leasing asset pricing which is feasible through a set of equations that balance the interests of the participants. The article also examined the status of concentration of leasing market, its regional and sectoral structures.