Stochastic approach to integrated modeling of credit and interest rate risk
The paper presents a review of stochastic framework for term structure modeling and shows comparative advantages of commonly used techniques. The main application of the research is coherent modeling of credit and interest rate risk for Euro zone issuers.
This paper reviews difficulties concerning a development of single-name CDS price (spread) dynamics model for the purpose of determination of margin requirements. It also discusses a possibility to construct such a model using information about respective equity prices and option implied volatilities. Finally, it presents the basic step towards the former idea demonstrating results for the CDS written on Gazprom senior debt.
The article gives an overview of influence of stock market discrimination on market value of companies in China. There are two types of shares on Chinese stock market: class A shares, which are available for domestic investors, and class B shares, which are available for foreign investors. Such market structure is not a unique Chinese market's feature. It is also used in such countries as Finland, Singapore, Switzerland, Thailand, etc. What differs Chinese market from markets with similar structure is the fact that class B shares are traded with substantial discount to class A shares. Such a situation is explained by such factors informational asymmetry between domestic and foreign investors; different liquidity of different classes of shares; diversification effect, connected with investment in Chinese stock market; size of companies; ratio of amounts of shares of different classes; stock exchange where company's shares are traded.
This article presents an engineering approach to estimating market resiliency based on analysis of the dynamics of a liquidity index. The method provides formal criteria for defining a “liquidity shock” on the market and can be used to obtain resiliency-related statistics for further research and estimation of this liquidity aspect. The developed algorithm uses the results of a spline approximation for observational data and allows a theoretical interpretation of the results. The method was applied to real data resulting in estimation of market resiliency for the given period.
In textbook the main issues connected with organization of credit analysis in a commercial bank were considered. The role of credit analysis in risk management system is shown. The methodology and specific methods for assessing the creditworthiness of borrowers used by banks are set out by complex approach. The textbook includes international recommendations for introduction of internal credit risk assessment systems in banks. With the aim at presenting the material examples from the practice of commercial banks, analytical tables, diagrams and figures were used.
Argentina, the second largest country in Latin America, hardly recovered form the recession of the year 2001, faces the crisis again in 2008. First of all, the crisis affected the credit and banking sphere of the country, reducing the volumes of credit and deposit. But during the crisis, Argentina managed to carry out the restructuring of the financial system. The Global financial and economic crisis has shown the importance of the investors' confidence.
The textbook has passed practical tests and written on the basis of the readable authors for many years. Presented in textbook materials give students orientation in the solution of many practical problems in a number of areas, constitute the initial level to obtain a broader and deeper education in the field of probability theory. The book provides an overview of the theory of stochastic processes, detailed material on the theory of Markov processes with discrete time (Markov chains) and continuous-time. In addition to the solved problems for each Chapter of the textbook suggested problems to solve and theoretical questions to test the quality of the learning material.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.
The paper considers the financial choice of entrepreneurs at their initial stage of development as a key criterion of a new firm potential riskiness. The main objective of the research is the methodology elaboration aimed at the numerical estimation of the role of informal financial resources involved in the small business creation. Two fundamental considerations have been tested. The former implies that informal investment is a substitution for unavailable formal sources, including venture capital (because of the lack of essential networks and connections with business associations). The latter performs the opposite concept of negative effects: economic reasoning discouragement and inefficient resources allocation. A special technique is introduced in order to measure the credit quality of early entrepreneurial activity and to estimate its contingency with the financial strategy. The methodology validation is realised under Global Entrepreneurship Monitor conceptual framework. The results are received for 42 countries in 2006-2007, depicting the influence of informal support on potential losses under the second consideration. As a result, informal investments are inefficient when the concentration of credit risk in the economy is rather high. Investorsђ expectations about the entrepreneurial growth of the firm are pessimistic, anticipated returns on investments are too low to be economically reasonable. The outcome leads to the irrecoverable losses, both financial (short-received profitability) and nonfinancial (decreased output, the lack of innovativeness, flexibility, and inventiveness).
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.