Анализ влияния периодичности проведения измерений на точность определения временного и буферного индексов

Интеллект. Инновации. Инвестиции. 2019. № 7. С. 103–111.

Горбунов Р. Н., Горбунова З. В., Михайлов А. Ю.

Due to the growing level of motorization while maintaining the capacity of existing roads, as well as due to the need to design and build new ones, the question of assessing the quality and reliability of traffic management is becoming increasingly relevant.

The aim of the research is to determine the effect of the frequency of measurements on the accuracy of determining the travel time and buffer indices.

To achieve this goal, a mathematical model was developed that describes the daily dynamics of travel time along the route, taking into account the possible presence of a traffic light object and an unregulated pedestrian crossing. Based on the data of the mathematical model, one thousand different variants of the daily dynamics of travel time along routes taking into account the presence of a traffic light and unregulated pedestrian crossing and one thousand different variants of the daily dynamics of travel time along routes without interference were randomly modeled. From the simulated diurnal dynamics, a sampling was made with a frequency of one to sixty minutes of data on the time of movement.

For each sample and daily dynamics variant, the travel time and buffer indices were calculated and their values were compared with the index values at the maximum sample size. Further, deviations of the index values were established with an increase in the intervals of measurements. Based on the revealed dependence, the maximum time intervals were proposed for determining the travel time and buffer index with 95% accuracy, subject to the presence of an unregulated pedestrian crossing and traffic light object and in their absence.

In addition, the study showed that the obtained measurement result is affected by the possibility of coincidence or complete mismatch of the selected measurement intervals with the intervals of changes in the motion parameters on the selected route.

Further research should include identifying the dependence and degree of influence of various objects, traffic conditions and other parameters on the accuracy of measurements at various intervals, as well as testing the results

Keywords: моделирование, modeling, level of service, уровень обслуживания, улично-дорожная сеть, street-road network, buffer index, буферный индекс, временной индекс, daily dynamics, travel time index, суточная динамика