Влияние демографических процессов на уровень инфляции в регионах России
The influence of demographic processes on the inflation rate in Russian regions is reviewing. The hypothesis of heterogeneous influence of the population of different age groups on the inflation rate are testing. Such influence can be explained by the different behavior of age groups concerning consumption, inflation expectations, as well as other factors that determine the behavior of different age groups, the specifics of the country’s regions, and interregional interaction. The database includes the statistical indicators of 81 regions of Russia for the period from 2010 to 2018. As the dependent variable the author has taken the inflation rate. As the independent variables in this paper are using the growth rate of the working age population share, the population younger than working age share, and the population older than working age share. Control variables are the openness of the economy, the growth rate of the physical volume index of investment, and the regional fiscal balances. The global and local Moran, Geary, Getis and Ord indices were used to identify the spatial dependence of the inflation rate. The obtained results allowed us to conclude that we can observe a positive global autocorrelation of the inflation rate in Russian regions and there is a need to use spatial models. Estimation of the Durbin spatial model allowed us to confirm the hypothesis. The growth rate of the working-age population share is inflationary, the growth rate of the population older than working age is inflationary too, but less, and the growth rate of the population younger than working age – deflationary. The obtained conclusions can be used to forecast inflation in the regions of Russia.
The paper proposes a structural model of inflationary relationship between do-mestic regions. The model shows that foreign inflation and regional internal inflation ex-pectations are key structural determinants of price growth pace in regions. In case of auto-regressive inflation expectations, it is demonstrated how price dynamics shocks in foreign economies are transferred to the regional inflations in domestic economy.
Fertility is an important determinant of long-run population growth and labor market conditions. The present study focuses on the effects of time and space dynamics on the description of fertility in Sweden. These effects were expected to be generated by labor mobility across municipalities. The influence of time dynamics in postponing or accelerating childbearing was assessed by considering two different effects of earnings. First, the effect within one generation was considered by comparing a family’s current earnings with the earnings in the recent past and expected earnings in the future. The second effect, referred to previously as the Easterlin hypothesis, was examined through the generations by comparing a household’s earnings for a younger generation with earnings of the parental generation. The hypotheses were tested for the period 1981–2008. The study involved estimating space and time dynamics by using the SAR (2,1) model and the general method of moments for aggregate panel data. By comparing different specifications, positive spatial autocorrelation of fertility was identified. Current earnings appeared to have a negative effect on fertility rates within municipalities, and in the long-run, across them. The inverted Easterlin hypothesis was weakly supported within municipalities. The study makes an important theoretical contribution through the application of a stationarity condition and evaluation of the long-run effect in the direct, indirect, and total forms of the SAR (2,1) model with second-order autoregressive and first-order spatial disturbances.
This volume discusses post-socialist urban transport functioning and development in Russia, within the context of the country’s recent transition towards a market economy. Over the past twenty-five years, urban transport in Russia has undergone serious transformations, prompted by the transitioning economy. Yet, the lack of readily available statistical data has led to a gap in the inclusion of Russia in the body of international transport economics research. By including ten chapters of original, cutting-edge research by Russian transport scholars, this book will close that gap. Discussing topics such as the relationship between urban spatial structure and travel behavior in post-soviet cities, road safety, trends and reforms in urban public transport development, transport planning and modelling, and the role of institutions in post-soviet transportation management, this book provides a comprehensive survey of the current state of transportation in Russia. The book concludes with a forecast for future travel development in Russia and makes recommendations for future policy. This book will be of interest to researchers in transportation economics and policy as well as policy makers and those working in the field of urban and transport planning.
The fundamental idea underpinning spatial econometric models of economic growth is as follows: regional growth is determined not only by social, economic, geographic traits of a region but also by spillovers from other regions, most importantly adjacent ones. If one region starts booming, it can left neighbors unaffected (neutral mechanism), spur their growth (cooperation mechanism) or slow their growth by pulling resources over (competition mechanism). What mechanism and to which extent occurs in practice matters for designing balanced economic policy and evaluating efficiency of regional policy investment. Classic spatial econometric models make strong although simplifying assumption that the same mechanism matters for all regions in the same manner, and there is no variation in spillovers intensity across regions. This assumption seems plausible for relatively small and homogenous regions of European countries, but it looks excessively strong for large and diverse Russian regions. In this paper we attempt to relax this assumption and propose a new model, fitting better in Russian conditions and bringing only slight sophistication from the estimation point of view. We introduce sensitivity parameter governing regional exposure to externalities. We assume this parameter to be a linear function of region-level observables, like area, population density or urbanization rate. These hypotheses have been confirmed at least partially. We found that dense and urbanized regions were more sensitive to spillovers. In other words, a region surrounded by the fast-growing areas, will grow the more intense, the more its population density and the higher the level of urbanization.
The cahpter deals with the cross-regional variety of entrepreneurial activity in Russia and the factors which may determine it, basing on the results of a representative survey of ca. 56 000 adults in the regions of Russin (2011)/ It is shown that the quality of the entrepreneurial activity of population (prevalence of the opportunity driven entrepreneurship) does not correlate with the density of already existing SMEs as well as with the level of unemployment; but it correlates with with the level of urbanization as well as with the level of the well-being of population of rerspective regions. Besides, the regional TEA positively correlate with the perceived opportunity and the self-efficacy of adults i respective regions.
An important role of digital inequality for hindering the development of civil society is being increasingly acknowledged. Simultaneously, differences in availability and the practices of use of social network sites (SNS) may be considered as major manifestations of such digital divide. While SNS are in principle highly convenient spaces for public discussion, lack of access or domination by socially insignificant small talk may indicate underdevelopment of the public sphere. At the same time, agenda differences between regions may signal about local problems. In this study we seek to find out whether regional digital divide exists in such a large country as Russia. We start from a theory of uneven modernization of Russia and use the data from its most popular SNS “VK.com” as a proxy for measuring digital inequality. By analyzing user activity data from a sample of 77,000 users and texts from a carefully selected subsample of 36,000 users we conclude that regional level explains an extremely small share of variance in the overall variation of behavioral user data. A notable exception is attention to the topics of Islam and Ukraine. However, our data reveal that historically geographical penetration of “VK.com” proceeded from the regions considered the most modernized to those considered the most traditional. This finding supports the theory of uneven modernization, but it also shows that digital inequality is subject to change with time.
This paper provides a pioneering approach to estimate the relationship between interregional human capital mobility and the occurrence of high-growth firms (HGFs). We construct and employ the dataset on mobility of university graduates from top-100 Russian universities. We find that the relationship between the mobility of high-skilled university graduates and high-growth firms is non-linear and U-shaped: the initial rise in the number of HGFs is due to the relatively low concentration of highly skilled migrants and availability of innovations only for a small number of firms. However, the competition effect strengthens at some point when innovations become available for larger number of firms simultaneously with large inflow of highly skilled university graduates.
The online edition contains mental maps of all major Russian macroregions & some regions & cities of Russia, representing ethnic, cultural & geographical specificity of the territories. Unique regional images & their localization are combined in vivid textual & visual materials, mental maps & regional onomasticons.
For the experts specialized in cultural geography & geihumanities, regional & local studies, cartography, and for a wider audience of those interested in geographical diversity of Russia.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.