Strategies of Dynamic Complexity Management

Foresight and STI Governance. 2020. Vol. 14. No. 4. P. 34–45.

Knyazeva H.

The modern theory of complex systems changes our view of historical processes, accompanied by uncertainties,
instabilities and ambiguities. The knowledge of this theory allows us to master a system or holistic thinking, and to
understand the laws of functioning and growth of not just structural, but dynamic complexity. Uncertainties and chaotic elements that indicate any state of crisis are not only negative factors that we should beware of and not without fear to worry about them. We can learn to manage them and use them in the way of renewal of social systems, producing innovations. The strategic vision of complex systems evolution becomes an effective tool for decision making and scenarios planning based on our participatory activities with alternative futures.
The article examines the case of Shell Corporation, which has been using scenario thinking technologies since the early 1970s, which has given it incredible competitive advantages and incentives for rapid growth and transformation into an international energy giant.

Keywords: форсайт, foresight, сложная система, нелинейность, uncertainty, неопределенность, сценарное планирование, holism, холизм, synergy, синергия, эмерджентность, non-linearity, emergence, alternative futures, complex systems, scenario planning, альтернативные варианты будущего, participatory futures, партисипационное будущее