Прогнозирование потоков экскурсионных групп музеев на основе модификации метода случайного леса
In recent years, both in Russia and in the world, there has been an annual increase in the number of museum visitors. The most popular exhibitions are visited by millions of people. In 2020, in the context of quarantine measures caused by the COVID-19 epidemic, the issue of managing the museum's visitors’ flows has become especially acute. If earlier the throughput of museums was limited by the maximum duration of a possible evacuation from the museums building, exhibitions space and the number of employees, who are working with the visitors, then in 2020, due to the observance of sanitary and epidemiological rules, the throughput of museums was further reduced. This determines the relevance of analytical solutions for museums since in order to manage visitor flows and adapt services to high demand, it is necessary to have an effective forecasting model that takes into account the determinism of demand by a number of factors.
The purpose of this paper is to develop a forecasting model for the number of excursion groups in specification museum-day-hour. A modification of random forest with the inclusion of more than 450 independent variables in the model is proposed as a forecasting method. The modification of the model consists in changing the mechanism for combining forecasts of trees in the forest in such a way that the weight of the tree in the model is inversely proportional to the measurement error of this tree. The proposed model is tested on the basis of data on more than 20,000 excursion groups of the State Russian Museum for the period 2018-2020. The proposed model showed high accuracy (36.6% WAPE and 0.5% BIAS).
Venture capital (VC) provides financial and managerial support for new innovative ideas at the initial stages of commercialization. It has helped to find the market for many radical innovations of 20th century, including personal computer, Internet and genetic engineering.
As a part of market economy venture business was not stable from the very beginning. The periods of rapid growth alternated with deep recessions. However each time VC revived anew as the Phoenix due to its very important function in modern knowledge-based economy.
This report presents an analysis of statistical data that prove the existence of several cycles in VC dynamics in the USA and the Great Britain. The main factors of these cycles formation are discussed. The author proposes two possible scenarios of development of VC market for the first 30 years of the new 21st century. A hypothesis is put forward about the relation between VC cycle's amplitude and a phase of Kondratieff's cycle.
The volume contains the abstracts of the 12th International Conference "Intelligent Data Processing: Theory and Applications". The conference is organized by the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Federal Research Center "Informatics and Control" of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Scientific and Coordination Center "Digital Methods of Data Mining". The conference has being held biennially since 1989. It is one of the most recognizable scientific forums on data mining, machine learning, pattern recognition, image analysis, signal processing, and discrete analysis. The Organizing Committee of IDP-2018 is grateful to Forecsys Co. and CFRS Co. for providing assistance in the conference preparation and execution. The conference is funded by RFBR, grant 18-07-20075. The conference website http://mmro.ru/en/.
Data management and analysis is one of the fastest growing and most challenging areas of research and development in both academia and industry. Numerous types of applications and services have been studied and re-examined in this field resulting in this edited volume which includes chapters on effective approaches for dealing with the inherent complexity within data management and analysis. This edited volume contains practical case studies, and will appeal to students, researchers and professionals working in data management and analysis in the business, education, healthcare, and bioinformatics areas.
This paper is an overview of the current issues and tendencies in Computational linguistics. The overview is based on the materials of the conference on computational linguistics COLING’2012. The modern approaches to the traditional NLP domains such as pos-tagging, syntactic parsing, machine translation are discussed. The highlights of automated information extraction, such as fact extraction, opinion mining are also in focus. The main tendency of modern technologies in Computational linguistics is to accumulate the higher level of linguistic analysis (discourse analysis, cognitive modeling) in the models and to combine machine learning technologies with the algorithmic methods on the basis of deep expert linguistic knowledge.
In this article we describe a system allowing companies to organize an efficient inventory management with 40 suppliers of different products. The system consists of four modules, each of which can be improved: demand planning, inventory management, procurement planning and KPI reporting. Described system was implemented in a real company, specializing on perishable products totaling over 600 SKUs. The system helped the company to increase its turnover by 7% while keeping the same level of services.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.
портовый менеджмент, показатели деятельности, анализ эффективности, система учета, распределение издержек, методы анализа деятельности портовой системы
At present many industries reveal tendency for setting up of vertically integrated companies (VIC) the structure of which unites all technological processes. This tendency proved its efficiency in oil industry where coordination of all successive stages of technological process, namely, oil prospecting and production -oil transportation - oil processing - oil chemistry - oil products and oil chemicals marketing, is necessary. The article considers specific features of introduction of "personnel management" module at enterprises of oil and gas industry.
vertically integrated companies; personnel management