Cryptocurrencies Chaotic Co‐movement Forecasting with Neural Networks
In this study Non‐Linear forecasting models have been implemented to forecast the 7 major cryptocurrencies. To the best of the authors knowledge, this is the first study to forecast the cryptocurrencies chaotic co‐movement forecasting using non‐linear models like Neural networks. The study finds that LSTM yields better result for lags 0 and 0‐3 and for large lags 0‐7, the ANN is the best. Further study confirms that predictions using variables like volume is not suitable for forecasting in any case. The findings of the study will impact Policy makers and investors.
The papers in this special issue focus on the emerging phenomenon of cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies are digital financial assets, for which ownership and transfers of ownership are guaranteed by a cryptographic decentralized technology. The rise of cryptocurrencies’ value on the market and the growing popularity around the world open a number of challenges and concerns for business and industrial economics. Using the lenses of both neoclassical and behavioral theories, this introductory article discusses the main trends in the academic research related to cryptocurrencies and highlights the contributions of the selected works to the literature. A particular emphasis is on socio-economic, misconduct and sustainability issues. We posit that cryptocurrencies may perform some useful functions and add economic value, but there are reasons to favor the regulation of the market. While this would go against the original libertarian rationale behind cryptocurrencies, it appears a necessary step to improve social welfare.
For the last five years there has been a global boom of interest in cryptocurrencies, followed by the fall of their rates; at the same time, there was a wave of enthusiasm regarding the public offering of tokens (ICO) and disillusionment in them (due partly to the active counteraction by American and other influential regulators). Disputes on doctrine moved from suggestions of a new object of property rights to prohibitive initiatives. As these eventful years have shown, the global financial system is sufficiently stable to digest even such a decentralized phenomenon as cryptocurrency. In my opinion, it is now time to recall the tribulations of former discussions and draw a conclusion concerning their interim (one hopes) normative results.
The review discusses the political-economic aspects of the concept of distributed capitalism allowed for by blockchain technology. As opposed to the first era of the Internet, where the industry of financial and information services was dominated by intermediaries, the blockchain era is characterized by development of a new institution of trust; disruption of financial intermediation; economic inclusion of hundreds of millions of citizens in developing countries; an increase in competition and a decrease in inequality. The paper focuses on the content of key political-economic categories being redefined in the blockchain era. First, labor value gives way to creative value which is manifesting itself in cryptocurrencies. Second, exploitation of workers is replaced by digital discrimination. The blockchain revolution is a solution to the problem of discrimination against intellectual property creators, who have to hand over a large part of the value created to intermediaries. Third, capitalism characterized by information monopoly gives place to free competition based on rivalry between cryptocurrencies. Fourth, class struggle is substituted by confrontation between agents of information monopoly system and those of distributed economy. The author considers the main opposition to distributed capitalism to stem from the feudal financial system which loses ground under new conditions, where economic agents may use alternative currencies and interact directly with one other without risk and high transaction costs.
High rates of growth of the ICO market and its excess returns stipulate a significant interest of investors to projects which use initial token allocation (ICO) for attracting investments. This work takes into account the fact that even a potentially profitable project may fail to collect the required amount of money and to start placing tokens on the stock exchange. We are speaking about success of an ICO-campaign for fund raising. In order to estimate the influence of factors and check the suggested research hypotheses, logistic regression was used. The selection included 672 projects. As a dependent variable, the proportion of the amount collected in the ICO process from the required value is selected. Depending on the tested hypothesis the influencing variables took into account the presence of a pre-sale stage and the bounty program and also the price of the token, the upper limit of fund raising, the duration of the ICO-campaign and the number of team members. The work results allow token emitters to substantiate managing the success of the ICO-campaign of the project and the investors to see whether it deserves their attention. Besides, the obtained materials can be useful for specialists in forming the legal framework of token transactions.
The article analyzes the possibility of using cryptocurrencies in the Russian Federation. It is shown that the prospects for the use of cryptocurrencies in Russia are unfavorable due to a number of limitations. An analysis of these constraints has been performed. A review of the possibilities of using cryptocurrencies in Russia under international sanctions is given.