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## Criterion of Significance Level for Selection of Order of Spectral Estimation of Entropy Maximum

It is researched a wide class of parametric estimations of power spectral density based on principle of entropy maximum and autoregression observation model. At that there is distinguished the key parameter which is used model order. It is considered a problem of a priori uncertainty when true value of order is a priori unknown. It is proposed a new criterion for definition of order using finite sampling volume with purpose of overcome of the drawbacks of existing algorithms in conditions of small sampling. The principle of guaranteed significance level in a problem of complex statistic hypothesis verification is a basic principle of this criterion. In contrast to criteria of AIC, BIC, etc. this criterion is not related to determination of measurements inaccuracy, since it uses a conception of “significance level” of formed solution only. The efficiency of proposed criterion is researched theoretically and experimentally. An example of its application in a problem of spectral analysis of voice signals is considered. Recommendations about its practical application in the systems of digital signal processing are given.

In this article analyzed some methods of speech quality estimation based on State Standard and Informational Theory of Speech Perception. Experimentally examine effectiveness and boundaries of free methods for speech parameterization and using it with deferent metrics.

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We have recently introduced an irregularity index *λ *for daily sunspot numbers *ISSN*, derived from the well-known Lyapunov exponent, that attempts to reflect irregularities in the chaotic process of solar activity. Like the Lyapunov exponent, the irregularity index is computed from the data for different embedding dimensions *m *(2-32). When *m* = 2, *λ* maxima match *ISSN* maxima of the Schwabe cycle, whereas when *m* = 3, *λ *maxima occur at *ISSN* minima. The patterns of *λ* as a function of time remain similar from *m* = 4 to 16: the dynamics of *λ *change between 1915 and 1935, separating two regimes, one from 1850 to 1915 and the other from 1935 to 2005, in which *λ* retains a similar structure. A sharp peak occurs at the time of the *ISSN* minimum between cycles 23 and 24, possibly a precursor of unusual cycle 24 and maybe a new regime change. *λ* is significantly smaller during the ascending and descending phases of solar cycles. Differences in values of the irregularity index observed for different cycles reflect differences in correlations in sunspot series at a scale much less than the 4-yr sliding window used in computing them; the lifetime of sunspots provides a source of correlation at that time scale. The burst of short-term irregularity evidenced by the strong *l*-peak at the minimum of cycle 23-24 would reflect a decrease in correlation at the time scale of several days rather than a change in the shape of the cycle.

Since the early 1990s, speaker adaptation have become one of the intensive areas in speech recognition. State-of-the-art batch-mode adaptation algorithms assume that speech of particular speaker contains enough information about the user's voice. In this article we propose to allow the user to manually verify if the adaptation is useful. Our procedure requires the speaker to pronounce syllables containing each vowel of particular language. The algorithm contains two steps looping through all syllables. At first, LPC analysis is performed for extracted vowel and the LPC coefficients are used to synthesize the new sound (with a fixed pitch period) and play it. If this synthesized sound is not perceived by the user as an original one then the syllable should be recorded again. At the second stage, speaker is asked to produce another syllable with the same vowel to automatically verify the stability of pronunciation. If two signals are closed (in terms of the Itakura-Saito divergence) then the sounds are marked as "good" for adaptation. Otherwise both steps are repeated. In the experiment we examine a problem of vowel recognition for Russian language in our voice control system which fuses two classifiers: the CMU Sphinx with speaker-independent acoustic model and Euclidean comparison of MFCC features of model vowel and input signal frames. Our results support the statement that the proposed approach provides better accuracy and reliability in comparison with traditional MAP/MLLR techniques implemented in the CMU Sphinx.

The influence of the length of the sample series of economic dynamics to the correct diagnosis of the structure of autoregressive models. It is proved that the length of the sample uvelichina further than the defined period of economic inertial object correlogram distort the real situation, and autoregression models are wrong structure. All scientific hypotheses tested on a representative sample of daily data in world oil prices over the past five years.

A model for organizing cargo transportation between two node stations connected by a railway line which contains a certain number of intermediate stations is considered. The movement of cargo is in one direction. Such a situation may occur, for example, if one of the node stations is located in a region which produce raw material for manufacturing industry located in another region, and there is another node station. The organization of freight traﬃc is performed by means of a number of technologies. These technologies determine the rules for taking on cargo at the initial node station, the rules of interaction between neighboring stations, as well as the rule of distribution of cargo to the ﬁnal node stations. The process of cargo transportation is followed by the set rule of control. For such a model, one must determine possible modes of cargo transportation and describe their properties. This model is described by a ﬁnite-dimensional system of diﬀerential equations with nonlocal linear restrictions. The class of the solution satisfying nonlocal linear restrictions is extremely narrow. It results in the need for the “correct” extension of solutions of a system of diﬀerential equations to a class of quasi-solutions having the distinctive feature of gaps in a countable number of points. It was possible numerically using the Runge–Kutta method of the fourth order to build these quasi-solutions and determine their rate of growth. Let us note that in the technical plan the main complexity consisted in obtaining quasi-solutions satisfying the nonlocal linear restrictions. Furthermore, we investigated the dependence of quasi-solutions and, in particular, sizes of gaps (jumps) of solutions on a number of parameters of the model characterizing a rule of control, technologies for transportation of cargo and intensity of giving of cargo on a node station.

Event logs collected by modern information and technical systems usually contain enough data for automated process models discovery. A variety of algorithms was developed for process models discovery, conformance checking, log to model alignment, comparison of process models, etc., nevertheless a quick analysis of ad-hoc selected parts of a journal still have not get a full-fledged implementation. This paper describes an ROLAP-based method of multidimensional event logs storage for process mining. The result of the analysis of the journal is visualized as directed graph representing the union of all possible event sequences, ranked by their occurrence probability. Our implementation allows the analyst to discover process models for sublogs defined by ad-hoc selection of criteria and value of occurrence probability

The geographic information system (GIS) is based on the first and only Russian Imperial Census of 1897 and the First All-Union Census of the Soviet Union of 1926. The GIS features vector data (shapefiles) of allprovinces of the two states. For the 1897 census, there is information about linguistic, religious, and social estate groups. The part based on the 1926 census features nationality. Both shapefiles include information on gender, rural and urban population. The GIS allows for producing any necessary maps for individual studies of the period which require the administrative boundaries and demographic information.

Existing approaches suggest that IT strategy should be a reflection of business strategy. However, actually organisations do not often follow business strategy even if it is formally declared. In these conditions, IT strategy can be viewed not as a plan, but as an organisational shared view on the role of information systems. This approach generally reflects only a top-down perspective of IT strategy. So, it can be supplemented by a strategic behaviour pattern (i.e., more or less standard response to a changes that is formed as result of previous experience) to implement bottom-up approach. Two components that can help to establish effective reaction regarding new initiatives in IT are proposed here: model of IT-related decision making, and efficiency measurement metric to estimate maturity of business processes and appropriate IT. Usage of proposed tools is demonstrated in practical cases.