Информационное управление на основе сценарного подхода в условиях геополитического противоборства
Any company in market economy faces with a problem of acceptance of strategic decisions, under conditions of uncertainty concerning the future. Under conditions of economic crisis when level of uncertainty increases, this problem becomes especially actual. One of methods for reduction the influence of the uncertainty factor by the company activity, received a new push to development in second half of twentieth century, is the scenario approach. It gives responsibility to analyze the influence of possible changes of factors and their combinations on company's activity and to make a decision on adequacy of strategy of company's development and possibility of its realization in the given economic situation. Given article offers one of possible techniques of the scenario approach with reference to realization of strategy of the company, based on the algorithm within the limits of model of scenarios research, developed by Bryant&Lempert (2010). Simulation model, on the basis of which scenarios are developed, can consider both internal strategic variables, and a considerable amount of external factors which influence company's activity.
The reality is that uncertainty and different orientation of real estate market trends and a lasting time frame of investment planning are obvious nowadays. Under such conditions, the scenario analysis of risks increases the project loss assessment efficiency. In the long run, this fact might be of paramount importance in order to make efficient managerial decisions in the course of a project realization, moreover— in order to make the final evaluation of a project.
The paper deals with groundbreaking distinctive characteristics of scenario approach, i.e. review and collation of approaches, which are designed to define ‘scenario’ as a notion. The author classifies the approaches and presents methods of identification of scenarios as the most complex step in assessing a risk. The results of the analysis will make it possible to develop a scenario algorithm for assessing risks of a residential real estate project.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.
The report considers the system-wide and significant aspects of the dynamic modeling of the strategic development of the socio-economic systems on the basis of a composite system-dynamic and agent-based simulation and scenario approach.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
We address the external effects on public sector efficiency measures acquired using Data Envelopment Analysis. We use the health care system in Russian regions in 2011 to evaluate modern approaches to accounting for external effects. We propose a promising method of correcting DEA efficiency measures. Despite the multiple advantages DEA offers, the usage of this approach carries with it a number of methodological difficulties. Accounting for multiple factors of efficiency calls for more complex methods, among which the most promising are DMU clustering and calculating local production possibility frontiers. Using regression models for estimate correction requires further study due to possible systematic errors during estimation. A mixture of data correction and DMU clustering together with multi-stage DEA seems most promising at the moment. Analyzing several stages of transforming society’s resources into social welfare will allow for picking out the weak points in a state agency’s work.