Россия в меняющихся условиях мировой торговли: структурный взгляд на новое позиционирование
This article discusses changes in the structure of world trade and the features of integration of Russian economy into the global exchange of goods and services. There is an increasing competition on global markets of goods and services that require high-skilled labor. During the last two decades, the structure of Russian export has not gained positive diversification shifts and comparative advantage in high value added goods. The article discusses the following problems of Russian trade policy: an overestimation of traditional sectors’ export potential, a lack of attention to the problems of integration into global value chains and international industrial cooperation, and an untapped potential of fast-growing medium-sized companies. The agenda of prospective Russian trade policy might include a transition to a broad interpretation of trade policy oriented towards long-term structural changes in the economy and a change in the positioning of sectors in global value chains, combined with measures to develop human capital and institutions, determining the further formation of the service sector.
The paper explores the evolution of trade and economic relations between Russia and Myanmar in 1948-2018. The author compares the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of Myanmar cooperation with China, India and Russia, highlighting their features and prospects. Summarizing the results, the author states that, despite the currently modest volumes of trade and investment, the potential for developing foreign economic relations between Russia and Myanmar is very high. However, Myanmar is an important link in the regional strategies of China and India, which also belong to the BRICS and the SCO. Therefore, it is impossible for Russia to build its political and economic ties with Myanmar without taking these aspects of regional relations into account.
Taking price changes from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model of world trade, the authors use a small open economy computable general equilibrium comparative static model of the Russian economy to assess the impact of global free trade and a successful completion of the Doha Agenda on the Russian economy, and especially on the poor. They compare those results with the impact of Russian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on income distribution and the poor. The model incorporates all 55,000 households from the Russian Household Budget Survey as real households. Crucially, given the importance of foreign direct investment (FDI) liberalization as part of Russian WTO accession, the authors also include FDI and Dixit-Stiglitz endogenous productivity effects from liberalization of import barriers against goods and FDI in services. The authors estimate that Russian WTO accession in the medium run will result in gains averaged over all Russian households equal to 7.3 percent of Russian consumption (with a standard deviation of 2.2 percent of consumption), with virtually all households gaining. They find that global free trade would result in a weighted average gain to households in Russia of 0.2 percent of consumption, with a standard deviation of 0.2 percent of consumption, while a successful completion of the Doha Development Agenda would result in a weighted average gain to households of -0.3 percent of consumption (with a standard deviation of 0.2 percent of consumption). Russia, as a net food importer, loses from subsidy elimination, and the gains to Russia from tariff cuts in other countries are too small to offset these losses. The results strongly support the view that Russia's own liberalization is more important than improvements in market access as a result of reforms in tariffs or subsidies in the rest of the world. Foremost among the own reforms is liberalization of barriers against FDI in business services.
This collection includes scientific reports presented for participation in the International Conference: "The Evolution of the Global Trade System: problems and prospects" which took place on October 20-22, 2016 in St.Petersburg
This book contains a unique collection of studies on key economic and social policy challenges faced by countries of the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean region in a short- and long-term perspective. Prepared within the EU funded FP7 project on „Prospective Analysis for the Mediterranean Region (MEDPRO)” conducted in 2010-2013 it takes account on recent political developments in the region (Arab Spring) and their potential consequences. It covers a broad spectrum of topics such as factors of economic growth, macroeconomic and fiscal stability, trade and investment, Euro-Mediterranean and intra-regional economic integration, private sector development and privatizations, infrastructure, tourism, agriculture, financial sector development, poverty and inequality, education, labor market and gender issues.
Economic integration and the growing institutionalization of bilateral economic relations is partly the goal of Russia-EU cooperation. Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) facilitates achievement of this goal, because now Russia and the EU have to play by the same rules in bilateral trade. The working hypothesis in this paper is that despite a range of remaining problems Russia’s WTO accession is a positive development in Russia-EU trade and economic relations, because it provides a firm institutional basis for synergy of Russia-EU and Eurasian (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan) economic integration.