The Method of Converting an Expert Opinion to Z-number
The concept of Z-numbers introduced by Zade in 2011 is discussed topically nowadays due to it aptitude to deal with nonlinearities and uncertainties whose are common in real life. It was a large step of representing fuzzy logic, however that numbers created much larger problems of how to calculate them or aggregate multiple numbers of that type. Z-numbers have a significant potential in the describing of the uncertainty of the human knowledge because both the expert assessment and the Z-number consists of restraint and reliability of the measured value. In this paper, a method of converting an expert opinion to Z-number is proposed according to set of specific questions. In addition, the approach to Z-numbers aggregation is introduced. Finally, submitted methods are demonstrated on a real example. The topicality of the research is developing a new algorithm and software (based on that development) which could help people make decision in a messy uncertainty with many parameters and factors that are also defined imprecisely. In this work, we present the research that is aimed to find the most efficient methods to operate them (aggregate, add, divide). Firstly, it is important to identify all existing methods of aggregating Z-numbers. Secondly, it is needed to invent new methods of how work with them. The most interesting techniques should be detailed and summarized. There is also a program that is developed to model the real-word task of decision-making.
This article is devoted to the creation of intelligent modelling tools for decision support in the evaluation of intellectual projects submitted for financing, as based on qualitatively defined characteristics. The economic and mathematical models that form the basis of the toolkit are constructed using the mathematical apparatus of fuzzy logic, which allows for the description of poorly structured knowledge of specialists, as well as their application in solving questions about the extent of the impact of the proposed projects on the environment. The authors classify investment projects according to the degree of impact on the environment, the environmental criteria required by the investor for the evaluation of investment projects, and the formal formulation of the problem of evaluation of investment projects when taking into account the environmental factor. The toolkit was created based on the concept of intellectualization, where economic and mathematical models for the evaluation of investment projects are programmatically implemented via the tools and functions available in the MATLAB package.
The book presents a remarkable collection of chapters covering a wide range of topics in the areas of intelligent systems and artificial intelligence, and their real-world applications. It gathers the proceedings of the Intelligent Systems Conference 2019, which attracted a total of 546 submissions from pioneering researchers, scientists, industrial engineers, and students from all around the world. These submissions underwent a double-blind peer-review process, after which 190 were selected for inclusion in these proceedings.
As intelligent systems continue to replace and sometimes outperform human intelligence in decision-making processes, they have made it possible to tackle a host of problems more effectively. This branching out of computational intelligence in several directions and use of intelligent systems in everyday applications have created the need for an international conference as a venue for reporting on the latest innovations and trends.
This book collects both theory and application based chapters on virtually all aspects of artificial intelligence; presenting state-of-the-art intelligent methods and techniques for solving real-world problems, along with a vision for future research, it represents a unique and valuable asset.
We introduce a game for (extended) Gödel logic where the players’ interaction stepwise reduces claims about the relative order of truth degrees of complex formulas to atomic truth comparison claims. Using the concept of disjunctive game states this semantic game is lifted to a provability game, where winning strategies correspond to proofs in a sequents-of-relations calculus.
The article deals with the problem of creating a temperature regulator, which does not require preliminary tuning for a specific production plant. Authors proposed to use a matrix approach of fuzzy logic for this purpose. It allows engineers to apply the linguistic rules formulated in the most general form for industrial processes control. It also allows building simple control algorithms for complex nonlinear systems. To verify the correctness of the algorithm, authors assembled installation with heaters of various types, powers and inertia. The full-scale experiment shown that the developed prototype of the device allows controlling the temperature in various settings without initial tuning.
The study focuses on the theoretical implementation of blockchain technology in Russian electricity market. The authors attempt to model Russian electricity market schemes before and after the implementation of blockchain along with its evaluation. The key findings of the research are the decrease in the number of market participants and the reduction of electricity price in the blockchain-based market model, which, in turn, is estimated to be more efficient than the traditional one. The efficiency calculations are made through the Fuzzy Inference System based on fuzzy logic.
The 11th Conference of the European Society for Fuzzy Logic and Technology (EUSFLAT 2019), will take place in Prague, the capital of the Czech Republic on September 9-13, 2019. The main organizer of the conference is the Institute for Research and Applications of Fuzzy Modeling (IRAFM), University of Ostrava and the Czech Institute of Informatics, Robotics and Cybernetics (CIIRC), Czech Technical University in Prague. The aim of the conference is to bring together researchers dealing with the theory and applications of computational intelligence, fuzzy logic, fuzzy systems, soft computing and related areas.
The main problems and features of combined approach to the complex objects control and management stability analysis are investigated in the paper. Analytical-simulation scenarios and scenarios of intelligent models and systems execution for complex objects control and management stability analysis are given. The paper describes a particular group of models and modelling systems – hybrid intelligent models and systems that allow in conditions of uncertainty, incomplete initial data and complex interdependence between elements of complex objects to evaluate the implications of realization of various scenarios and risk evaluation. The investigations have shown successful possibility of risks evaluation by the combined implementation of the analytical-simulation models and algorithms, and ANFIS method – the method of hybrid neural-fuzzy modelling.The main problems and features of combined approach to the complex objects control and management stability analysis are investigated in the paper. Analytical-simulation scenarios and scenarios of intelligent models and systems execution for complex objects control and management stability analysis are given. The paper describes a particular group of models and modelling systems – hybrid intelligent models and systems that allow in conditions of uncertainty, incomplete initial data and complex interdependence between elements of complex objects to evaluate the implications of realization of various scenarios and risk evaluation. The investigations have shown successful possibility of risks evaluation by the combined implementation of the analytical-simulation models and algorithms, and ANFIS method – the method of hybrid neural-fuzzy modelling.
This book constitutes the proceedings of the 16th Russian Conference on Artificial Intelligence, RCAI 2018, Moscow, Russia, in September 2018.
The 22 full papers presented along with 4 short papers in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 75 submissions. The conference deals with a wide range of topics, including data mining and knowledge discovery, text mining, reasoning, decision making, natural language processing, vision, intelligent robotics, multi-agent systems, machine learning, ontology engineering.
E-commerce is a runaway activity growing at an unprecedented rate all over the world and drawing millions of people from different spots on the globe. At the same time, e-commerce affords ground for malicious behavior that becomes a subject of principal concern. One way to minimize this threat is to use reputation systems for trust management across users of the network. Most of existing reputation systems are feedback-based, and they work with feedback expressed in the form of numbers (i.e. from 0 to 5 as per integer scale). In general, notions of trust and reputation exemplify uncertain (imprecise) pieces of information (data) that are typical for the field of e-commerce. We suggest using fuzzy logic approach to take into account the inherent vagueness of user’s feedback expressing the degree of satisfaction after completion of a regular transaction. Brief comparative analysis of well-known reputation systems, such as EigenTrust, HonestPeer, Absolute Trust, PowerTrust and PeerTrust systems is presented. Based on marked out criteria like convergence speed, robustness, the presence of hyper parameters, the most robust and scalable algorithm is chosen on the basis of carried out sets of computer experiments. The examples of chosen algorithm’s (PeerTrust) fuzzy versions (both Type-1 and Interval Type-2 cases) are implemented and analysed.
A model for organizing cargo transportation between two node stations connected by a railway line which contains a certain number of intermediate stations is considered. The movement of cargo is in one direction. Such a situation may occur, for example, if one of the node stations is located in a region which produce raw material for manufacturing industry located in another region, and there is another node station. The organization of freight traﬃc is performed by means of a number of technologies. These technologies determine the rules for taking on cargo at the initial node station, the rules of interaction between neighboring stations, as well as the rule of distribution of cargo to the ﬁnal node stations. The process of cargo transportation is followed by the set rule of control. For such a model, one must determine possible modes of cargo transportation and describe their properties. This model is described by a ﬁnite-dimensional system of diﬀerential equations with nonlocal linear restrictions. The class of the solution satisfying nonlocal linear restrictions is extremely narrow. It results in the need for the “correct” extension of solutions of a system of diﬀerential equations to a class of quasi-solutions having the distinctive feature of gaps in a countable number of points. It was possible numerically using the Runge–Kutta method of the fourth order to build these quasi-solutions and determine their rate of growth. Let us note that in the technical plan the main complexity consisted in obtaining quasi-solutions satisfying the nonlocal linear restrictions. Furthermore, we investigated the dependence of quasi-solutions and, in particular, sizes of gaps (jumps) of solutions on a number of parameters of the model characterizing a rule of control, technologies for transportation of cargo and intensity of giving of cargo on a node station.
Event logs collected by modern information and technical systems usually contain enough data for automated process models discovery. A variety of algorithms was developed for process models discovery, conformance checking, log to model alignment, comparison of process models, etc., nevertheless a quick analysis of ad-hoc selected parts of a journal still have not get a full-fledged implementation. This paper describes an ROLAP-based method of multidimensional event logs storage for process mining. The result of the analysis of the journal is visualized as directed graph representing the union of all possible event sequences, ranked by their occurrence probability. Our implementation allows the analyst to discover process models for sublogs defined by ad-hoc selection of criteria and value of occurrence probability
The geographic information system (GIS) is based on the first and only Russian Imperial Census of 1897 and the First All-Union Census of the Soviet Union of 1926. The GIS features vector data (shapefiles) of allprovinces of the two states. For the 1897 census, there is information about linguistic, religious, and social estate groups. The part based on the 1926 census features nationality. Both shapefiles include information on gender, rural and urban population. The GIS allows for producing any necessary maps for individual studies of the period which require the administrative boundaries and demographic information.
Existing approaches suggest that IT strategy should be a reflection of business strategy. However, actually organisations do not often follow business strategy even if it is formally declared. In these conditions, IT strategy can be viewed not as a plan, but as an organisational shared view on the role of information systems. This approach generally reflects only a top-down perspective of IT strategy. So, it can be supplemented by a strategic behaviour pattern (i.e., more or less standard response to a changes that is formed as result of previous experience) to implement bottom-up approach. Two components that can help to establish effective reaction regarding new initiatives in IT are proposed here: model of IT-related decision making, and efficiency measurement metric to estimate maturity of business processes and appropriate IT. Usage of proposed tools is demonstrated in practical cases.