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Article

Оценка влияния детских пособий на бедность семей с детьми на основе многомерной пробит-модели

Прикладная эконометрика. 2018. Т. 52. № 4. С. 62-90.

Families with children in Russia are particularly exposed to risk of poverty. Child benefits, as a source of income for families with children, can reduce this risk. But some of the child benefits in Russia are means-tested, so eligibility for benefits depends on family’s poverty. To avoid this endogeneity problem we estimate model of multivariate probit with two depending variables: probability of poverty (absolute, relative or subjective) and probability of receiving child benefits. We also compare estimates of this model with estimates of probit model of poverty.

The results obtained show that child benefits reduce the probability of absolute and relative poverty. Their impact on subjective poverty is more complex. In general, they reduce the likelihood of subjective poverty, but in some cases, their positive impact on subjective poverty is overweighted by stigmatization from receiving benefits.