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## Применение метода статистического моделирования для автоматизации прогнозирования долговечности при проектировании электронных средств

Жаднов В. В., Кулыгин В. Н.

The article discusses the application of statistical modeling for the durability prediction of electronic equipment. Durability indicators are one of the important characteristics of onboard electronic equipment of spacecraft with long terms of active existence.
The purpose of the study is to improve the quality of design work by improving the method of calculating the life of electronic equipment, taking into account the probabilistic characteristics of the life components of its electronic components.
The object of the study is a typical procedure for calculating the life of electronic equipment at the design stage from data on the characteristics of the durability of electronic components.
The subject of the study are methods, models and algorithms applicable to the analysis of the design level of the durability of electronic equipment.
To study the effectiveness of statistical modeling, software was developed and the reliability of its work was tested. With the help of this software, computational experiments were carried out. Comparison of the results of statistical modeling and calculations by a typical methodology made it possible to identify a number of significant limitations of the deterministic method.
In the standard methodology, it is assumed that the variation coefficient of life is a constant for all electronic components. But the analysis of Data Sheet of electronic components has shown that the values of the variation coefficient can be different for electronic components of different types. The calculations have confirmed the need to take into account the values of the variation coefficient of life in predicting the durability of electronic equipment.
In addition, in the standard methodology it is assumed that the life of electronic equipment that contains electronic components with the same life values will be equal to the life of electronic equipment that contains only one such electronic component. Computational experiments have shown that the life of electronic equipment that contains electronic components with the same life values will be less than the life of electronic equipment that contains only one such electronic component.
Based on the studies, the scope of the standard methodology was determined and the effectiveness of statistical modeling was proved. However, the results obtained by the statistical modeling method should be corrected by the results of the tests and the controlled operation of electronic equipment.