The Prospects for Normalization on the Korean Peninsula: A View from Moscow
После казалось бы беспросветного тупика в урегулировании ядерного кризиса на Корейском полуострове там появились признаки изменений подходов Пхеньяна и Вашингтона к разблокированию северокорейской ядерной проблемы. Неожиданно как для экспертов, так и для всего мирового сообщества КНДР, США и Южная Корея объявили о резком изменении политического курса от тотальной конфронтации к переговорам, поиску компромисса по ядерной проблеме КНДР.
This volume incorporates the works of scholars examining more deeply the core issues of some of the big trends in relationships in Asia. Our academic symposium demonstrates KEI’s effort to provide constructive conversation and insightful analysis that will provide the policies for a strong U.S.-Korea alliance and U.S. foreign policy in Asia to ensure these trends develop in a positive direction. Whether you have a new or continuing relationship with reading this publication, we hope you enjoy the 25th edition of the Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies volume and the excellent work inside.
In the current situation the other sides of the hexagon (Japan and South Korea) will be seen by Moscow and Beijing as allies of the United States, and the approach to them will depend on what position they take. Tokyo and Seoul may not want to sacrifice important trade and economic ties with Russia and China on account of European problems distant from them, and will stick to moderate policies. However, in case of serious differences over the DPRK (e.g. the departure of Russia and China from the sanctions regime as a consequence of the growing general confrontation with the West), they will have to more firmly support their allies.
This paper examines the state of the global food problem, food security in East Asia and the opportunity for Russia to prevent a food deficit in North Korea. The authors analyze the symptoms of the global food problem, the theoretical approaches to food security, the transformation of food consumption in Asia and the food trade between Russia and the Korean Peninsula. One major conclusion is that Russia is in the best position among all the countries of the world to increase food exports to Asia – and especially to North Korea – while the Asian population’s habits of food consumption shape the new structure of food trade between that region and the rest of the world.
Korean-Russian Jeju Forum 2012 was organized by the East Asia Foundation and was dedicated to relations between Russia and the countries of the Korean Peninsula.
Currently, Russia has come to realize that a resolute turn to East Asia is a necessary means to both give impetus to economic modernization of its Far Eastern areas and strengthen its international positions. For these tasks to be a success, coordinating prospective planning with that of East Asian countries is a vital precondition. In this regard, worthy of attention is the gas pipeline from Russia to the Republic of Korea via the territory of DPRK. What factors are at present determining Russia’s renewed interest in the pipeline? And what strategic traps – if any – can Russia fall into in case the project is implemented?
For Russia, this issue is not new – it has been addressed in some way or another since the beginning of the 1990s. Various options concerning sources of gas supply, routes of transportation etc. have been explored. Simultaneously, the project has been a focus of special interest among Russian experts. With these factors in mind, an attempt to analyze the project in Russia’s priorities, both current and future, seems to be a timely exercise.
The set of problems relating to nuclear weapons allegedly being developed by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has traditionally been a major factor militating against the generally cooperative development paradigm of Asia-Pacific. Much time and energy have been injected into the Six-Party Talks but to date they appear to have demonstrated a low degree of effectiveness. Based on the premise that any result, however modest it may be, must initially be regarded in a positive way new mechanisms to reinvigorate these negotiations are urgently needed.
At this point, a potential contribution of cooperation between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Russian Federation as a new factor of Asia-Pacific stability deserves special attention. The study of whether and how it can influence the evolution of the North Korean nuclear problem seems to be a timely exercise.
The paper consists of three parts. Part One assesses the impact of the stalemate in the Six-Party Talks on Russia’s interests and outlines a number of nuances in its approach to these negotiations. Part Two specifies the North Korean nuclear problem in ASEAN’s order of international priority and overviews recent trends in ASEAN’s relations with DPRK. Part Three provides insights into how cooperation between Russia and ASEAN can strengthen the overall cooperative potential in Asia-Pacific. In conclusion, recommendations with regard to North Korea’s nuclear issue are offered.