Dynamics of Sunspot Series on Time Scales From Days to Years: Correlation of Sunspot Births, Variable Lifetimes, and Evolution of the High-Frequency Spectral Component
This paper explores some features of the dynamics of daily sunspot numbers on scales from days to years. We define higher and lower frequency energy components of the series that are related to periods ranging over 1-6 days and 6 days-2 years respectively. The lower frequency component is found to follow the solar activity, but the maxima of the higher frequency component are unexpectedly lower during the last epoch of high solar activity than during the preceding epoch of low solar activity. We also consider the birthrate of sunspot groups as another indicator of quickly varying components of the solar activity and show that it is the general growth of solar activity in the 1930-1940s which drives up this birthrate. We propose an auto-regressive model that captures the opposite trends exhibited by the two representatives of the high-frequency content, accurately reproduces the evolutions of the lower and higher frequency energy components, and replicates the shape of the curve representing the daily sunspot numbers. The three following hypotheses underlie the model construction: (1) proxy series of solar activity can be modeled by a random process with a modulated noise; (2) sunspot's birth and disappearance rates, both following the solar cycle, determine properties of this process; (3) the births of sunspots are positively correlated in time during epochs of high solar activity. We find that the mean birthrate varies as a power function of the mean lifetime. Derived constraints could contribute to narrowing the choice of a proper solar dynamo model.
Radio-observations allow us to reveal the long-lived (2–5 days) intersunspot sources (ISS), whose centers are often located above the neutral line of the magnetic field separating leading and following parts of a whole active region (the first type of ISS (ISS-I)) or above the neutral line separating magnetic polarities into complex sunspots (the second type of ISS (ISS-II)). ISS-I and ISS-II demonstrate gyrocyclotron or gyrosynchrotron spectra, more dynamic pre-flare behavior than ISS-III with bremsstrahlung in the quiet active regions. The qualitative model of “three magnetic fluxes” explaining the origin of accelerated particles in ISS and their long-lasting existence and spectral features is proposed.
Wireless sensor networks (WSN) are becoming more and more popular due to the growing area of their application. However, finding a single approach to different tasks is rather difficult, as each task has its own peculiarities. In this paper we propose a universal hardware platform as the first step to a quicker development of finished solutions based on WSN. We demonstrate the use of our platform in different types of applications.
We have recently introduced an irregularity index λ for daily sunspot numbers ISSN, derived from the well-known Lyapunov exponent, that attempts to reflect irregularities in the chaotic process of solar activity. Like the Lyapunov exponent, the irregularity index is computed from the data for different embedding dimensions m (2-32). When m = 2, λ maxima match ISSN maxima of the Schwabe cycle, whereas when m = 3, λ maxima occur at ISSN minima. The patterns of λ as a function of time remain similar from m = 4 to 16: the dynamics of λ change between 1915 and 1935, separating two regimes, one from 1850 to 1915 and the other from 1935 to 2005, in which λ retains a similar structure. A sharp peak occurs at the time of the ISSN minimum between cycles 23 and 24, possibly a precursor of unusual cycle 24 and maybe a new regime change. λ is significantly smaller during the ascending and descending phases of solar cycles. Differences in values of the irregularity index observed for different cycles reflect differences in correlations in sunspot series at a scale much less than the 4-yr sliding window used in computing them; the lifetime of sunspots provides a source of correlation at that time scale. The burst of short-term irregularity evidenced by the strong l-peak at the minimum of cycle 23-24 would reflect a decrease in correlation at the time scale of several days rather than a change in the shape of the cycle.
We define, calculate and analyze irregularity indices λISSN of daily series of the International Sunspot Number ISSN as a function of increasing smoothing from N = 162 to 648 days. The irregularity indices λ are computed within 4-year sliding windows, with embedding dimensions m = 1 and 2. λISSN displays Schwabe cycles with ~5.5-year variations ("half Schwabe variations" HSV). The mean of λISSN undergoes a downward step and the amplitude of its variations strongly decreases around 1930. We observe changes in the ratio R of the mean amplitude of λ peaks at solar cycle minima with respect to peaks at solar maxima as a function of date, embedding dimension and, importantly, smoothing parameter N. We identify two distinct regimes, called Q1 and Q2, defined mainly by the evolution of R as a function of N: Q1, with increasing HSV behavior and R value as N is increased, occurs before 1915–1930; and Q2, with decreasing HSV behavior and R value as N is increased, occurs after ~1975. We attempt to account for these observations with an autoregressive (order 1) model with Poissonian noise and a mean modulated by two sine waves of periods T1 and T2 (T1 = 11 years, and intermediate T2 is tuned to mimic quasi-biennial oscillations QBO). The model can generate both Q1 and Q2 regimes. When m = 1, HSV appears in the absence of T2 variations. When m = 2, Q1 occurs when T2 variations are present, whereas Q2 occurs when T2 variations are suppressed. We propose that the HSV behavior of the irregularity index of ISSN may be linked to the presence of strong QBO before 1915–1930, a transition and their disappearance around 1975, corresponding to a change in regime of solar activity.
A model for organizing cargo transportation between two node stations connected by a railway line which contains a certain number of intermediate stations is considered. The movement of cargo is in one direction. Such a situation may occur, for example, if one of the node stations is located in a region which produce raw material for manufacturing industry located in another region, and there is another node station. The organization of freight traﬃc is performed by means of a number of technologies. These technologies determine the rules for taking on cargo at the initial node station, the rules of interaction between neighboring stations, as well as the rule of distribution of cargo to the ﬁnal node stations. The process of cargo transportation is followed by the set rule of control. For such a model, one must determine possible modes of cargo transportation and describe their properties. This model is described by a ﬁnite-dimensional system of diﬀerential equations with nonlocal linear restrictions. The class of the solution satisfying nonlocal linear restrictions is extremely narrow. It results in the need for the “correct” extension of solutions of a system of diﬀerential equations to a class of quasi-solutions having the distinctive feature of gaps in a countable number of points. It was possible numerically using the Runge–Kutta method of the fourth order to build these quasi-solutions and determine their rate of growth. Let us note that in the technical plan the main complexity consisted in obtaining quasi-solutions satisfying the nonlocal linear restrictions. Furthermore, we investigated the dependence of quasi-solutions and, in particular, sizes of gaps (jumps) of solutions on a number of parameters of the model characterizing a rule of control, technologies for transportation of cargo and intensity of giving of cargo on a node station.
Event logs collected by modern information and technical systems usually contain enough data for automated process models discovery. A variety of algorithms was developed for process models discovery, conformance checking, log to model alignment, comparison of process models, etc., nevertheless a quick analysis of ad-hoc selected parts of a journal still have not get a full-fledged implementation. This paper describes an ROLAP-based method of multidimensional event logs storage for process mining. The result of the analysis of the journal is visualized as directed graph representing the union of all possible event sequences, ranked by their occurrence probability. Our implementation allows the analyst to discover process models for sublogs defined by ad-hoc selection of criteria and value of occurrence probability
The dynamics of a two-component Davydov-Scott (DS) soliton with a small mismatch of the initial location or velocity of the high-frequency (HF) component was investigated within the framework of the Zakharov-type system of two coupled equations for the HF and low-frequency (LF) fields. In this system, the HF field is described by the linear Schrödinger equation with the potential generated by the LF component varying in time and space. The LF component in this system is described by the Korteweg-de Vries equation with a term of quadratic influence of the HF field on the LF field. The frequency of the DS soliton`s component oscillation was found analytically using the balance equation. The perturbed DS soliton was shown to be stable. The analytical results were confirmed by numerical simulations.
The Handbook of CO₂ in Power Systems' objective is to include the state-of-the-art developments that occurred in power systems taking CO₂ emission into account. The book includes power systems operation modeling with CO₂ emissions considerations, CO₂ market mechanism modeling, CO₂ regulation policy modeling, carbon price forecasting, and carbon capture modeling. For each of the subjects, at least one article authored by a world specialist on the specific domain is included.