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Article

Детское недоедание в странах Африки: статистический анализ и моделирование факторов

Демографическое обозрение. 2017. Т. 4. № 3. С. 88-114.
Родионова Л. А., Лубнина А. А.

Sustainable development of society is one of the goals of the millennium, which is impossible without progress in the field of eradicating hunger. According to estimates of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, in 2015 about 792.5 million people suffered from chronic hunger. The vast majority of the hungry lived in developing countries, where 60% of child deaths were due to reduced body weight. The level of child malnutrition continues to grow in many African countries. The work explores the problems of child malnutrition in Africa, modeling its contributing factors according to data of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations for the period 1991-2014 Panel cointegration models made it possible to obtain estimates of long-term relationships. This is particularly important in the analysis and monitoring of long-term investment programs in Africa. Initially, all countries were divided into three clusters, differing in socio-economic development. The most unfavorable situation was in the countries of the first cluster, with low per capita GDP and a prevalence of childhood anemia (as a measure of hidden hunger) at 68.9%. Further modeling of long-term trends was carried out for the first cluster countries. The analysis showed that a long-term relationship exists between the prevalence of anemia among children (as a measure of hidden hunger), access to improved sources of drinking water, the seriousness of the food deficit, the population and the cost of food imports in total exports of goods.