Behavioral aspects of decision-making on payments to owners: review of studies
The topic of payout policy significance in terms of value creation has been developing for 50 years already. This development has led to the establishment classic theories that explain different patterns in the companies’ payout policy choices: signaling, agency costs theory, clientele theory and catering theory. However, tests results are not always consistent among different authors, which means that these theories cannot be used universally. Classic theories assume that all agents on the market are fully rational, which is rather unrealistic. These two facts led to the development of behavioral explanation of the payout policy choice. This approach focuses on the behavioral characteristics of managers that are responsible for the decision-making process in the company. Thus, the payout policy according to this approach is considered as the function of behavioral characteristics of managers (overconfidence, optimism, risk preferences, etc.) rather than the function of the financial variables.
This particular article is the review of researches that cover classic and modern theories of payout policy. The article covers the logic of the development of different views on the payout policy. The author covers articles that test different theories, analyzes main results and conclusions, investigates the reasons for the development of these theories. The main focus has been made on the behavioral approach which is considered as the most fruitful direction for the future research. The authors also cover the methodology of existing papers, variables that measure behavioral characteristics and results.
This article is devoted to review research in field of payout policy which is widely known as dividend policy among Russian scientists. We structure logical connections among most sufficient papers, devoted to explaining payout policy by signaling theory.
The question about possibilities to use Twitter users’ moods to increase accuracy of stock price movement prediction draws attention of many researchers. In this paper we examine the possibility of analyzing Twitter users’ mood to improve accuracy of predictions for Gold and Silver stock market prices. We used a lexicon-based approach to categorize the mood of users expressed in Twitter posts and to analyze 755 million tweets downloaded from February 13, 2013 to September 29, 2013. As forecasting technique, we select Support Vector Machines (SVM), which have shown the best performance. Results of SVM application to prediction the stock market prices for Gold and Silver are discussed.
A variety of researches were devoted to dividend payments in the developed markets. Nevertheless several new approaches to identifying the determinants of dividend policy were proposed in the last decade. Since the dividend policy of Russian companies is studied to a much lesser extent, this paper attempts to reveal factors that determine it. Namely, it checks the applicability of the catering theory and Lintner model to the Russian market. Also it tests the dependence of the quantitative indicators of dividend policy on the broadest possible set of explanatory variables, including financial and macroeconomic factors and the ownership structure.
The game-theoretic model developed in this article formulates the conditions required for the incorporation the corporate social responsibility (CSR) policy into the business as a mechanism of signaling. The model is based on the following principles: the Cournot model, the segmentation of consumers by their health deterioration risk attitude, the choice about CSR strategy by producers of low and high quality of food products. Results of the model show that the nonoccurrence of CSR in Russia is subject to the small share of health-conscious consumers and the lack of support and regulation of the state.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.