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Regular version of the site

Article

Predictive Model for the Bottomhole Pressure based on Machine Learning

Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering. 2018. No. 166. P. 825-841.
Spesivtsev P., Sinkov K., Sofronov I., Zimina A., Umnov A., Yarullin Ramil, Vetrov D.

The objective of this work is to develop a predictive model for multiphase wellbore flows using the machine learning approach. The artificial neural network is developed and then trained on the dataset generated using the numerical simulator of the full-scale transient wellbore flows. After the training is completed, the neural network is used to predict one of the key parameters of the wellbore flow, namely, the bottomhole pressure. The novelty of this work is related to the application of the neural network to analyze highly transient processes taking place in wellbores. In such processes, most of the parameters of interest can be represented by interdependent time series of variables linked through complex physical phenomena pertinent to the nature of multiphase flows. The proposed neural network with two hidden layers demonstrated the capability to predict the bottomhole pressure within 5% of the normalized root mean squared error for many complex wellbore configurations and flows. It is also shown that relatively higher prediction errors are mainly observed in the case of slug flows where the transient nature of flows is pronounced the most. Finally, the developed model is tested on data affected by noise. It is demonstrated that although the error of prediction slightly increases in contrast to the data without noise, the model captures essential features of the studied transient process. Description of the developed models, analysis of various test use cases, and possible future research directions are outlined.