Эффективность фискального стимулирования в условиях финансовой репрессии
Financial repression in the form of regulated expansion of demand for public bonds with below-market rate of return stabilizes public debt and decreases its service cost. This helps financing of fiscal stimuli programs in times of economic recession and high public sector indebtedness. But being implicit and distortionary taxation of households, financial repression interferes with market mechanisms and can decrease the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus. In this paper we augment the New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with the elements of financial repression to evaluate the impact of financial repression on fiscal multipliers. We compare different regimes of finance of fiscal expansion and confirm that lump-sum taxation delivers the highest multiplier, while proportional labor income taxation leads to substantial distortions and decreases the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus. Most importantly, we show that tighter financial repression in the form of higher requirement for households to hold public debt only marginally decreases the fiscal multiplier. At the same time, tightening repression by decreasing the rate of return on public bonds leads to higher fiscal multiplier. This result is in line with the literature, which shows higher effectiveness of fiscal stimuli under zero lower bound in the money market. We also estimate the short- and the long-run impact of financial repression on public debt. Under substantial inflation inertia, positive monetary policy shock provides long lasting effect of the liquidation of public debt.
This paper explores the history of the formation of public debt in Russian Empire in the 18th century
Since 2008, the world economy has been facing consequences of the global financial crisis. One of them is rapid growth in public debt in most advanced economies, which resulted from an overoptimistic estimate of fiscal situation before the crisis, declining government revenue and increasing social expenditure during the crisis, costs of the banking system restructuring, countercyclical fiscal policies, etc.
For this reason, many governments are trying to determine a ‘safe’ level of fiscal deficit and public debt. However, this is not an easy task. There is no single standard of fiscal safety for all economies. Besides, a globalized economy and irregular business cycle make it difficult to find out in which phase of the cycle a given economy is at the moment, while this is essential to assess fiscal indicators.
Historical experience shows that default risk may materialize at different levels of public debt, sometimes seemingly very low. In fact, a ‘safe’ borrowing level is country-specific and depends on many factors and often unpredictable circumstances. However, given the tense situation in global markets, the ‘safe’ level of public debt is lower than it used to be a decade ago. Another argument for a cautious approach concerns a highly pro-cyclical nature of such measures as the fiscal deficit to GDP or public debt to GDP ratios.
Lessons of the latest crises also indicate importance of more accurate estimation of countries’ contingent fiscal liabilities, particularly of those relating to the stability in the financial sector. If looking into the future, a correct estimation of other contingent liabilities, particularly those related to social welfare systems (implicit debt of the public pension and health systems) are of primary importance in the context of the ageing society and population decline. These liabilities far exceed official statistics on the public debt in some counties. As a result, such statistics does not present an adequate picture of the nation's public debt and actual fiscal burden that will be imposed on the shoulders of the following generations of taxpayers.
Review of current debt and fiscal policies executed by regional administrations of the regions in Ural Federal District and a neighboring Perm Region. Demonstrated, that debt strategy of the region depends mostly not on internal drivers – such as level of economic development and related revenues, but predominantly on federal policy in these areas. Forecast of debt policies of covered regions was given, and recommendations on appropriate instruments for debt funding proposed. .
2012 was strong for municipal debt market which almost doubled that year, with volume up from 54 to 118 billion rubles. Impact of the stagnation's end had been analyzed
Intentions to reduce debt levels of regions and municipalties that coincided with external shock to the regional bond market are likely to reduce issuance but improve quality of issuers
Ce livre a pour objectif de soumettre à l'expertise des historiens la question qui agite autant le monde savant que les politiques, les citoyens et les médias : comment un État ou un groupe d'États peut-il entrer dans une crise de la dette publique et comment peut-il s'en sortir ? Il semble bien en effet que les historiens disposent d'un vaste champ expérimental, susceptible d'autoriser les comparaisons dans le temps et dans l'espace. Au-delà des variations fortes du contexte dans lequel leurs observations s'insèrent, leurs constats peuvent ainsi entrer en résonance avec les théories ou les faits énoncés ou révélés par les économistes et les sociologues, ouvrant ainsi la voie à un véritable dialogue interdisciplinaire. Les exemples ne manquent pas, ils foisonnent, de moments critiques où les États se sont trouvés dans une situation de surendettement qu'ils ne parvenaient plus à surmonter. Ce livre entend rendre compte de ces épisodes sans doute improprement appelés « crises ». Il s'agit, en effet, d'interroger les auteurs sur un faisceau d'expériences historiques depuis le xviiie siècle jusqu'à nos jours, et de leur demander d'analyser à la fois les évolutions qui ont conduit à une montée de la dette publique et les remèdes qui ont pu être appliqués pour tenter de la juguler. De l'Amérique latine à la Russie, le spectre géographique de cette publication a une large portée internationale, l'ouvrage ne délivre certes pas de recettes mais apporte un nouvel éclairage sur des processus qui peuvent faire déraper la dette publique et sur les méthodes employées pour la réduire, l'endiguer, voire l'annuler.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.