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## Sandpiles on the heptagonal tiling

We study perturbations of the maximal stable state in a sandpile model on the set of faces of the heptagonal tiling on the hyperbolic plane. An explicit description for relaxations of such states is given.

We define the BTW mechanism on a two-dimensional heterogeneous self-similar lattice. Our model exhibits the power distribution of avalanches with the exponent τ=2−2/ν, where ν is the similarity exponent of the lattice. The inequality τ<1, for the first time detected in this paper inside a broad class of sand-piles, is ensured by random loading uniformly distributed over the lattice.

A kinetic model is proposed to describe the self-organized criticality on Twitter. The model is based on a fractional three-parameter self-organization scheme with stochastic sources. It is shown that the adiabatic regime of self- organization to the critical state is determined by the coordinated action of a relatively small number of network users. The model is described the subcritical, self-organized critical and supercritical state of Twitter.

The publication is dedicated to Nikolai Ivanovich Lobachevsky (1792-1856) — a great Russian mathematician, creator of non-Euclidean geometry, a native of Nizhny Novgorod. The basis of the illustrated album is provided by copies of archival materials relating to the biographies of N.I. Lobachevsky and his contemporaries. The publication is timed to celebrate the centennial (2016) of Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod — one of the leading Russian universities which has been bearing the name of this outstanding scientist, teacher and organizer of science since 1956. The book is intended for a wide readership.

In 1987, Bak, Tang, and Wiesenfeld introduced a mechanism (hereafter, the BTW mechanism) that underlies self-organized critical systems. Extreme events generated by the BTW mechanism are be- lieved to exhibit an unpredictable occurrence. In spite of this general opinion, the largest events in the original BTW model are efficiently predictable by algorithms that exploit information that is hidden in ap- plications. Intending to relate the predictability of self-organized critical systems with the level of its asymmetry, we examine the inter-event dis- tribution of extreme avalanches generated by the BTW mechanism on symmetrical and asymmetrical self-similar lattices. Initially, we claim that the main part of the size-frequency relationship is power-law in- dependent of the asymmetry, but the asymmetry reduces the range of scale-free avalanches in the domain of small avalanches. Further, we turn to extremes and claim that they are located on the downward bend of the distribution of the avalanches over their sizes. Finally, we compare the probability distribution of waiting time between two successive extremes with the exponential distribution. The latter gives the reference point of the complete unpredictability naturally measured in terms of the sum of two rates related to type I and II statistical errors: the rate of the unpredicted avalanches and the alarm time rate. We posit that the devi- ations of the observed probability distribution from the exponential one do not affect the unpredictability of extremes drawn from the waiting time between them.

A society is a medium with a complex structure of one-to-one relations between people. Those could be relations between friends, wife-husband relationships, relations between business partners, and so on. At a certain level of analysis, a society can be regarded as a gigantic maze constituted of one-to-one relationships between people. From a physical standpoint it can be considered as a highly porous medium. Such media are widely known for their outstanding properties and effects like self-organized criticality, percolation, power-law distribution of network cluster sizes, etc. In these media supercritical events, referred to as dragon-kings, may occur in two cases: when increasing stress is applied to a system (self-organized criticality scenario) or when increasing conductivity of a system is observed (percolation scenario). In social applications the first scenario is typical for negative effects: crises, wars, revolutions, financial breakdowns, state collapses, etc. The second scenario is more typical for positive effects like emergence of cities, growth of firms, population blow-ups, economic miracles, technology diffusion, social network formation, etc. If both conditions (increasing stress and increasing conductivity) are observed together, then absolutely miraculous dragon-king effects can occur that involve most human society. Historical examples of this effect are the emergence of the Mongol Empire, world religions, World War II, and the explosive proliferation of global internet services. This article describes these two scenarios in detail beginning with an overview of historical dragon-king events and phenomena starting from the early human history till the last decades and concluding with an analysis of their possible near future consequences on our global society. Thus we demonstrate that in social systems dragon-king is not a random outlier unexplainable by power-law statistics, but a natural effect. It is a very large cluster in a porous percolation medium. It occurs as a result of changes in external conditions, such as supercritical load, increase in system elements' sensitivity, or system connectivity growth.

Recently, there has been an increasing number of empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis that spread of avalanches of microposts on social networks, such as Twitter, is associated with some sociopolitical events. Typical examples of such events are political elections and protest movements. Inspired by this phenomenon, we built a phenomenological model that describes Twitter’s self-organization in a critical state. An external manifestation of this condition is the spread of avalanches of microposts on the network. e model is based on a fractional three-parameter self-organization scheme with stochastic sources. It is shown that the adiabatic mode of self-organization in a critical state is determined by the intensive coordinated action of a relatively small number of network users. To identify the critical states of the network and to verify the model, we have proposed a spectrum of three scaling indicators of the observed time series of microposts.

A model for organizing cargo transportation between two node stations connected by a railway line which contains a certain number of intermediate stations is considered. The movement of cargo is in one direction. Such a situation may occur, for example, if one of the node stations is located in a region which produce raw material for manufacturing industry located in another region, and there is another node station. The organization of freight traﬃc is performed by means of a number of technologies. These technologies determine the rules for taking on cargo at the initial node station, the rules of interaction between neighboring stations, as well as the rule of distribution of cargo to the ﬁnal node stations. The process of cargo transportation is followed by the set rule of control. For such a model, one must determine possible modes of cargo transportation and describe their properties. This model is described by a ﬁnite-dimensional system of diﬀerential equations with nonlocal linear restrictions. The class of the solution satisfying nonlocal linear restrictions is extremely narrow. It results in the need for the “correct” extension of solutions of a system of diﬀerential equations to a class of quasi-solutions having the distinctive feature of gaps in a countable number of points. It was possible numerically using the Runge–Kutta method of the fourth order to build these quasi-solutions and determine their rate of growth. Let us note that in the technical plan the main complexity consisted in obtaining quasi-solutions satisfying the nonlocal linear restrictions. Furthermore, we investigated the dependence of quasi-solutions and, in particular, sizes of gaps (jumps) of solutions on a number of parameters of the model characterizing a rule of control, technologies for transportation of cargo and intensity of giving of cargo on a node station.

This proceedings publication is a compilation of selected contributions from the “Third International Conference on the Dynamics of Information Systems” which took place at the University of Florida, Gainesville, February 16–18, 2011. The purpose of this conference was to bring together scientists and engineers from industry, government, and academia in order to exchange new discoveries and results in a broad range of topics relevant to the theory and practice of dynamics of information systems. Dynamics of Information Systems: Mathematical Foundation presents state-of-the art research and is intended for graduate students and researchers interested in some of the most recent discoveries in information theory and dynamical systems. Scientists in other disciplines may also benefit from the applications of new developments to their own area of study.