Forecasting of the electricity price on the day-ahead electricity market in Russia
After analyzing the characteristics and pricing models on the Russian wholesale electricity market, some important features for econometric modeling are introduced. This paper suggests econometric forecasting models developed to predict daily and hourly electricity prices on the day-ahead market for two price zones in Russia: European and Siberian ones. A set of 24 models, which are similar in nature but different in included regressors, are introduced. On the basis of the actual database for 2014, different modifications of price formation are offered and analyzed with the help of the Eviews econometric package. Dynamic forecasts on various distances (day, week, and month) are conducted and the most suitable models from the point of minimizing the norms of the vectors residuals are chosen. Constructed ARMA models have high predictive power and are able to reflect the price trend on the base of exogenous factors and the previous price values.
National and corporate policymakers view energy security strategies through the lens of mainstream concepts and definitions offered by research and policy discourse. The central elements of the classical energy security concepts are based on the premises of sufficient and reliable supply of fossil fuels at affordable prices in centralized supply systems. However, these approaches offered by neorealism, neoliberalism, constructivism, and international political economy are outdated. They rarely take account of the latest changes in the energy industry and society. The chapter examines the classic energy security concepts and assesses to what extent changes in the energy industry are taken into consideration. This is done through integrative literature review, comparative analysis, identification of ‘international relations’ and ‘energy’ research discourse with the use of big data, and country case studies. The chapter offers suggestions for revision of energy security concepts through integration of future technology considerations, new energy sources, new actors and the interrelation among them, the specific features of the developing and least developed countries and their energy relations with the wealthy states. Moreover, the differences in International Relations and Energy researchers’ discourse of energy security are outlined together with a rationale for the interdisciplinary approach to energy security, combining the natural and social sciences ideas and tools. The findings are illustrated with case studies of energy security policymaking in selected countries.
This paper presents results of an empirical study which explores Russian banks’ ratings by the econometric modeling method. The nexus was examined between ratings assigned by Moody’s, S&P and Fitch agencies in 2010-2013 years and banks’ financial indicators. Several hypotheses concerning the most promising ways to influence bank rating are tested. According to the research, (1) the most significant factors that reveal the tendency in assigning the rating by each agency during the whole tested period are total assets, liquidity and profitability. Besides, for different agencies’ ratings in some years significant factors are a sufficiency of the capital, activity of crediting of economy, quality of a credit portfolio; (2) The significance of the banks’ capital sufficiency, asset management policy (including liquidity) and profitability varies during the whole period. The impact of these indicators on ratings is higher during the periods following and (especially) previous to financial crises than in time of relative financial stability between crises when they have smaller impact on a rating; (3) financial policy pursued by the bank management can lead to the changes in its rating, at least for some agencies. However the same methods directed on the improvement of financial indicators will lead to the different results for different ratings’ changes. The specific efforts of management will appear more productive for increase of a rating of one agency, others will be less inclined to react to changes of financial performance of banks. The adequacy of obtained results is shown by means of juxtaposing with findings of other domestic and foreign authors.
This collection of essays from leading energy, strategic, and economic policy think tanks focused on how energy relations are forming in the 21st century offers energy scholars and policy makers answers to what these increasingly close relationships mean for international politics and trade.
The comparative analysis presents the first comparative study of the government procurement of French and Russian petroleum products with an in-depth review of foreign legal sources and national policy instruments. Based on the findings, this research led to the conclusion that public procurement of hydrocarbons is an extremely sensitive matter in the geopolitical, political and institutional sense. Despite some similarities in the general concept of French and Russian legislation in public procurement, the analysis revealed a substantial difference in the implementation of public procurement policies. Russia is characterized by a predominance of electronic auctions where the evaluation is based solely on the price whereas France uses a wide variety of different criteria to evaluate procurement offers.
Studies rarely focus on the double interplay between the innovation potential of a company, its business model and the structure of the market faced by the company. This interplay is especially important to Russian companies working in various industries of the energy sector. Multiple initiatives launched by the Russian authorities have been intended to foster innovation in technological sectors of the Russian economy. These initiatives are often based on one or another preconceived notion of a fundamental structural framework expected to produce the best result. Focus on mergers and acquisitions is a major part of this framework in both public and private organizations. This chapter shows that mergers and acquisitions per se have little influence on innovation potential of the resulting organization. Vice versa, a proper strategy based on the clear-cut competitive advantage and the specialization corresponding to this advantage is more productive way to foster innovation in an energy company. Such a specialization can be later followed by a series of mergers and acquisition. But if this initial step has been ignored or neglected, the subsequent mergers cannot start corporate innovation. This thesis is illustrated with three cases (Eurasia Drilling Company or EDC, TGT and Rosgeologiya) described below.
This article presents a forecast of the main balance sheet accounts for private pension funds: retirement savings, pension reserves, owned capital. The forecast is based on the funds inflow trends for obligatory pension insurance and nongovernmental pension benefits. We have found that the PPFs’ balance sheet will grow rapidly (in terms of GDP) in the coming decades and it can reach 10-30% of GDP in 2050 depending on circumstances. The obligatory pension insurance almost displaces nongovernmental pension benefits. In the short term horizon PPFs can meet serious problems associated with quick growth. In particular there may be problems with the capital adequacy and placing funds in assets with low risk and return (bank deposits)
We address the external effects on public sector efficiency measures acquired using Data Envelopment Analysis. We use the health care system in Russian regions in 2011 to evaluate modern approaches to accounting for external effects. We propose a promising method of correcting DEA efficiency measures. Despite the multiple advantages DEA offers, the usage of this approach carries with it a number of methodological difficulties. Accounting for multiple factors of efficiency calls for more complex methods, among which the most promising are DMU clustering and calculating local production possibility frontiers. Using regression models for estimate correction requires further study due to possible systematic errors during estimation. A mixture of data correction and DMU clustering together with multi-stage DEA seems most promising at the moment. Analyzing several stages of transforming society’s resources into social welfare will allow for picking out the weak points in a state agency’s work.