Потенциальная роль Нового банка развития и Азиатского банка инфраструктурных инвестиций в глобальной финансовой системе
This article focuses on the two recently established multilateral development banks (MDBs) dominated by emerging economies: Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and New Development Bank (NDB). The creation of these institutions was stimulated by the growing demand for infrastructure financing, insufficient potential of “traditional” MDBs to respond to this demand and their terms of funding conditionality, as well as developing countries’ aspiration for a greater influence in the global economic governance The authors explore the main economic and political incentives that lie behind the creation of these institutions, examine challenges and opportunities they are likely to face, and provide a forecast of their loan portfolios growth in the coming years. The forecast includes two scenarios: basic and optimistic, and is based on the analysis of NDB and AIIB differences from traditional banks, and potential benefits and challenges they can bring. The methodology used for assessment allows projecting the financial capacity of the two banks based on their announced shareholder capital and likely financial performance determined by membership, governance arrangements and other factors, and takes into account recent developments in both banks. Based on the forecast, the authors conclude that in ten years the new banks will be able to provide infrastructure financing at the level of traditional institutions working in the area. In order to develop in accordance with the optimistic scenario, the new banks should adhere to their basic alternative principles, but also rely on the experience of traditional banks in areas where they have proved their effectiveness. These include exchange of experience on selection of projects, social and environmental safeguards, and monitoring results. Apart from addressing the global infrastructure gap, the new banks could also stimulate traditional ones to reform their governance and change operational modalities and thus become more responsive to developing countries’ interests. However, even in ten years the contribution of the NDB and AIIB will be insufficient to substantially narrow the gap in infrastructure financing. In this regard, the potential of the new banks can obviously be used most effectively if they cooperate with traditional MDBs. This article contributes to better understanding the potential of such cooperation.