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Article

Власть и насилие в России через призму байесовского сценарного анализа.

Кречетова М. Ю., Сатаров Г. А.

M.Krechetova and G.Satarov continue the line of reasoning laid out in their article "Power and Violence (Russian Case)" and attempt to reconcile their thoughts with the current political situation in Russia and the results of scenario forecasting analysis that they carried out in Spring 2016. The study shows that Russia is moving a way from the inertial scenario, which seemed most likely only six month ago, towards the scenarios of a "Besieged fortress" and "Explosion" that imply an increase in physical violence.