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Article

Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends

Korotayev A., Zinkina J. V., Andreev A.

In the current paper, we investigate the relationship between secular cycles and millennial trends. The tests we perform suggest that the structure of millennial trends cannot be adequately understood without secular cycles being taken into consideration. At a certain level of analysis millennial trends turn out to be a virtual byproduct of demographic cycles that appear to incorporate certain trend- creating mechanisms. This suggests that demographic-political cycle models can serve as a basis for the development and testing of models accounting not only for secular cycles but also for millennial trends.