Эмпирическое сравнение математических методов построения динамических рядов системы таблиц «затраты-выпуск»
We investigate the relative effectiveness of the projection methods of Supply and Use tables in relation to Use tables. The empirical bases of the study are the Use tables of 28 countries for the period from 1995 to 2010 from WIOD project. We conduct a comparative study of three mathematical methods that have proven the most effective in constructing projection of Use tables for Spain and the Netherlands from the investigation of Temurshoev, Webb, and Yamano (2011).The most effective of these methods is GRAS, a version of the classical RAS algorithm. The results of applying this method under the number of criteria are closer to the published tables than the results of the INSD method and Kuroda method, which are based on quadratic programming. We conclude that GRAS method is a priority in the extrapolation of Use tables for Russia.
Matrix updating methods are used for constructing the target matrix with the prescribed row and column marginal totals that demonstrates the highest possible level of its structural similarity to initial matrix given. A concept of structural similarity has a vague framework that can be slightly refined under considering a particular case of strict proportionality between row and column marginal totals for target and initial matrices. Here the question arises: can we accept the initial matrix homothety as optimal solution for proportionality case of matrix updating problem?
In most practical situations an affirmative answer to the question is almost obvious. It is natural to call this common notion by homothetic paradigm and to refer its checking as homothetic testing. Some well-known methods for matrix updating serve as an additional instrumental confirmation to validity of homothetic paradigm. It is shown that RAS method and Kuroda’s method pass through the homothetic test successfully.
Homothetic paradigm can be helpful for enhancing a collection of matrix updating methods based on constrained minimization of the distance functions. Main attention is paid to improving the methods with weighted squared differences (both regular and relative) as an objective function.
As an instance of a incorrigible failure in the homothetic testing, the GRAS method for updating the economic matrices with some negative entries is analyzed in details. A collection of illustrative numerical examples and some recommendations for method’s choice are given.
A methodology has been developed to construct a time series of Russian Input-Output (IO) accounts for 2003 and subsequent years. This was based on the OKVED (All-Russian classifier of activities) and OKPD (All-Russian classifier of Products by Activity) classifications that are harmonized with the NACE rev. 1/CPA. The construction used IO Accounts for 2003 built in the Soviet classifications as the starting point.
An iterative algorithm has been proposed to transform these tables for 2003 into the OKVED/OKPD classifications. In the first step Use table (initial approximation) at purchasers' prices has been transformed using the conversion table bridging the Soviet classifications to the OKVED/OKPD classifications. In the second step the initial approximations of the 5 components of Use table at purchasers’ prices have been developed: the use of domestic goods and services at basic prices, the use of imported goods and services at basic prices; transport margins; trade margins and net taxes on products are developed. In the third step balancing each of the five tables has been taken place to ensure compliance of the row totals with the respective targets of national accounts. In the fourth step the final version of the use table at purchasers' prices has been calculated as the sum of the balanced five tables.
The method has been proposed to construct time series of IO Accounts at current prices based on these classifications for 2004 and subsequent years on the basis of transformed IO accounts for 2003 using the RAS procedure. RAS method is applied in two stages, first to determine the column totals of each of the calculated five tables and then to calculate all other items of these tables. Unlike traditional applications, in this paper RAS method is used to calculate matrices of intermediate consumption and final demand of goods and services simultaneously.
IO Accounts at basic prices account for 2004 and subsequent years have also been derived at previous year prices. For this purpose the deflators have been calculated on the basis of national accounts variables and statistics of international trade in goods and services.
The article presents a new method for updating a macroeconomic data matrix on the framework of an advanced RAS multiplicative pattern and GLS principle. The notions of angular and homothetic measures for matrix similarity are introduced. Unified analytical solution of constrained minimization problem for the homothetic measure as an objective function is derived in matrix notation. Special attention to the sensitivity of the solution to small changes in the target matrix margin totals is paid. A decomposing procedure for updating partitioned matrices with very large dimensions is described. In practice the proposed GLS-based method generates much more compact distributions of multiplicative model factors in comparison with RAS method.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.