"Антиэффект" ликвидности в российской банковской системе
The aim of this paper is to reveal the main features of the bank lending channel in the Russian economy. Having the answer to this question is important for increasing the efficiency of monetary policy because it will allow to evaluate the extent to which monetary policy impulses affect bank loans that are one of the main source of investments in Russia. The methodology is based on [Kashyap, Stein, 2000]. We analyze monthly data on the individual Russian banks’ balance sheets over the period 2010–2014. In order to take into account considerable differences between different groups of the Russian banks we divide our sample into groups according to their ownership structure, value of net assets, and their main activities. We also address a heterogeneity in the period of time we study. It is shown that there exists a relationship between liquidity level of the Russian banks’ balance sheets, their lending policy and monetary policy impulses depending on the banks’ characteristics and the period of time. We find liquidity “anti-effect” for the big Russian banks during the structural liquidity deficit period: the more liquid their balance sheets, the more these banks substitute corporate loans with liquid assets purchases under conditions of contractionary monetary policy regime. For some groups of medium and small banks that prefer to maintain the volume of corporate loans by selling liquid assets we justify the “classical” Kashyap and Stein liquidity effect. We also find some groups of medium and small banks through which bank lending channel did not work during the period of time we analyze.
In our research, we examine what macroeconomic factors determine and influence the credit cycle. In addition, our study contains four sections with theoretical and empirical parts, in which we describe how to measure credit cycles for developed and developing countries, and then introduce an important measure of the credit gap. Our results show a comparative analysis of credit cycles between different countries with different economic growth, and we have created an econometric model, which shows us the impact of macroeconomic factors according to the credit cycles for developing and developed economies.
Despite the impressive economic growth in Russia between 1999 and 2007, there is a fear that Russia may suffer the Dutch disease, which predicts that a country with large natural resource rents may experience a de-industrialisation and a lower long term economic growth. In this paper we study if there are any symptoms of the Dutch disease in Russia. Using a variety of Rosstat publications and the CHELEM database, we analyse the trends in production, wages and employment in the Russian manufacturing industries, and we study the behaviour of Russian imports and exports. We find that, while Russia exhibits some symptoms of the Dutch disease, e.g. the real appreciation of the rouble, the rise in real wages, the decrease in employment in manufacturing industries and the development of the services sector, the manufacturing production nonetheless increased, contradicting the theory of the Dutch disease. These trends can be explained by the gains in productivity and the recovery after the disorganisation in the 1990s, by new market opportunities for Russian products in the European Union and in CIS countries, by a growing Chinese demand for some products and by a booming internal market. Finally, investments in many manufacturing industries were largely encouraged, whereas those in the energy sector were strongly regulated, which contributed to the economic diversification.
The historical changes in Central and Eastern Europe demanded suitable paths for the transition from centrally planned to market based economies. The lack of relevant experience added to the challenge, giving rise to the incalculable risks of implementing untested policies. By focusing on monetary policy, trade, and convergence, this volume addresses some of the most urgent economic policy issues in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe and beyond.
The author traces the analysis evolution of the monetary shocks effects on the economy, exploring the key approaches to modeling of the monetary transmission mechanism. The article emphasizes the necessity of the monetary transmission mechanism modification in the conditions of current financial crisis: the active role reflection of the financial intermediaries, accounting of the development degrees of institutional capacity in the economy.
This paper analyzes a stylized model of an export-oriented economy. It investigates the impact of macroeconomic policies on the dynamics of the exchange rate, inflation, output and stabilization fund and consider different forms of strategic interaction between the government and the central bank. It is shown that the effective interaction of fiscal and monetary policies is possible under Stackelberg interaction with the government as leader and under cooperation.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.