Polarization or upgrading? Evolution of employment in transitional Russia
The global economy passes the COVID-19 related crises. For various projections, the output fall in Russia in 2020 will vary from 2 to 8 percent. So, in comparison with the crises of 1998 and 2008, the current shock can be more severe. In the upcoming years the Russian economy will pass the recovery stage, approaching the new balanced growth path. What proximate sources would push this growth?
With the neoclassical industry growth accounting and the Russia KLEMS dataset the present report aims to shed light on this, considering the growth patterns and sources of growth after the crises of 1998 and 2008. The report unveils the most important sources of the after-2008 stagnation in Russia, which are the decreasing efficiency of the extended oil and gas sector and the suspension of technology convergence. Since the recovery in Russia will be, most probably, caused by the increasing demand on energy and raw materials, driven by the recovery of global markets, policy implications for Russia should include efforts to improve efficiency in such export-oriented sectors, as oil and gas, and efforts, which aim to boost technology convergence such as backing export-oriented firms, which have been integrated to global value chains.
Two problems associated with the adequacy of traditional methods for describing the national economy as an object of study are considered. The first of them is due to the fact that technological progress leads to a decrease in the degree of representativeness of traditional macroeconomic indicators, i.e. to reduce the degree of representativeness of generally accepted methods of describing the economy. The second problem is related to the erosion of the borders of the national economy in connection with the processes of globalization, which leads to the fact that the national economy is gradually losing its representativeness as an object of study.
Problems of the Russian economy are under consideration.
The article reviews the main trends of “business patriotism tizma "in Russia. Then, in the light of identified trends, an assessment is given development potential of small and medium enterprises, the share of port substitution of goods of various categories, areas of investment online streams of Russian entrepreneurs.
The article describes the main features and parameters of the shadow economy, with a bird eye over Russian economy as an example. The description of the technological coefficient in the framework of V.K. Dmitrieff - W. Leontieff is given. Specific (originated from Political Economy) point of view as to relation of commodities - as (still) one of the key elements of an economic system - is formulated and established. .
review attempts to place Kalleberg’s ideas into a global context.
The paper explores the relationship between the import of semi-finished products and means of production and the export of high-tech products in Russian manufacturing companies. The key question of the research is whether the export of high-tech products is connected with the import of complex components and semi-finished products. The study confirms that the export of high-tech products is determined by the import of high-tech semi-finished products for the export-intensive Russian manufacturing companies. The research does not find any relationship between the import of equipment and means of production and the export of high-tech products. This has important implications for Russia’s structural policy aimed at expanding exports of high-tech products. First, introducing protectionist measures in relation to the import of foreign components should take place gradually to allow companies to adapt to the new conditions. Secondly, they should proceed selectively in order to allow access of Russian exporters to critical components and means of production that have no Russian counterparts.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.