Региональный Форсайт: европейский опыт и российская практика
The article touches upon some sociocultural features of regional Foresight practices as one of the most effective instruments of future planning and forming. On the basis of European and Russian regional Foresight case studies the authors argue that during the Foresight implementation on the regional level the potential of network interaction between major stakeholders in innovation process is significantly developed. And this contributes to regional social capital enhancement and provides new opportunities of its usage for innovation and economic development of a region.
Russian Federation inherited a wide and well-developed timber harvesting infrastructure from the Soviet Union. It also inherited relatively strong timber processing industry, especially a network of giant pulp-and-paper plants with access to abundant water supply and cheap electricity. However, a number of factors deteriorate Russia's timber processing competitiveness. First, military security reasons made Soviet Union locate its processing industry, including timber processing, deep within the continent. Therefore, major Russian pulp-and-paper plants, as well as sawmills, panels and plywood plants face higher transportation costs when exporting their production than their counterparts in the United States and Finland. Second, major timber processing plants had been technologically advanced in time of deployment (1970-1980-s), but their technology and machinery has become quite backward over the decades, while investment in the production has nearly stopped altogether in 1990-s and was scarce in 2000-s.
This article defines the framework for identifying social and economic challenges that the timber industry currently faces in the regions of Northern European Russia. The analysis of identified problems on a regional and local scale for the case of Kostroma oblast is presented. The main institutional shifts during the
1990s–2000s are discussed, along with economic problems of regional timber industry systems and their social implications, as well as how companies and rural communities of Kostroma oblast have adapted to the challenges of the ongoing economic recession in 2009.
In the past decades Foresight has been significantly developed as a tool for long-term forecasting in the field of power generation and energy efficiency. Such research aims at investigation of the most promising innovation strategies in this area, identifying various (including alternative) ways to achieve technological and market goals with the participation of best qualified experts. Such Foresight method as Roadmapping is widespread in the world practice. It helps to shape complex and interrelated views on prospects of innovation development in specific areas of energy efficiency, it links R&D programmes with creation of technologies and products, as well as their subsequent commercialization. The paper provides an overview of the world Foresight experience aimed at creating vision of the future and building innovation strategies related to energy efficiency. Special attention is paid to the Russian research practice, in particular to different types of Foresight projects implemented by the specialists of State University - Higher School of Economics. The authors describe the results of main projects dedicated to shape the future of energy-efficient technologies and to develop of innovation strategies on their application.
The paper analyzes emerging technologies in aircraft and shipbuilding industries aimed at addressing common grand challenges. For this purpose, the authors propose a framework for global trends and technology identification in two fields of the transport sector based on scenario and roadmapping approaches. The suggested framework helps policy-makers, companies, and other interested parties set priorities, select innovation projects, and implement them based on a vision of a desirable future.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.