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  • Использование пространственных эконометрических моделей при прогнозе регионального уровня безработицы

Article

Использование пространственных эконометрических моделей при прогнозе регионального уровня безработицы

We consider forecasting unemployment in Russian and German region with the help of econometric panel data models. Using regional data from 2005 till 2012 we show that spatial panel data models perform better in terms of forecasting accuracy than other models (on average and at least for some distinct regions) such as non-spatial panel data models, pooled OLS, models without exploratory variables and naive forecasts (average value for one or several previous periods).