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Regular version of the site

Article

Russian devaluation in 2014–2015: Falling into the abyss or a window of opportunity?

Russian Journal of Economics. 2015. Vol. 1. No. 3. P. 217-239.

Falling oil prices are leading to a reduction in domestic demand and lowering of the ruble exchange rate, thus enhancing the price competitiveness of Russian producers and  stimulating the supply side of the economy (especially in foreign markets unaffected by  the recession). Indeed, all of this create the possibility of offsetting the decline in domestic  demand to a varying degree through increased net exports. However, the present study shows  that, taking into account all of the structural problems of the Russian economy, the devalu-  ation of the ruble may lead to a more severe recession than anticipated by most experts in  their estimates, judging by average consensus forecasts (as of the end of September 2015).