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Article

Некоторые подходы к построению интегральных индексов экономического развития России

Френкель А., Сергиенко Я., Волкова Н., Смирнов С. В., Рощина Л.

The article is devoted to the construction of integral index giving an estimate of the overall state of the economy. Traditionally in this purpose it used the most general indicator of GDP, its volume and dynamics. However the authors concede that use of those criterions has a lot of disadvantages. The authors have proposed and built three integrated indexes in analyzing of economic dynamics in Russia: leading indicator, integral lagging and coincident indexes. The biggest impact has been given to the first of them. Analysis of the results leads to the conclusion that the development of the economy during the year is unstable, economy dynamic in the period of expansion or recession is different: the difference in lags between leading (5 months) and integral lagging indexes (6 months) reflects the peculiarities of the structure of the Russian economy, which is dominated by raw materials export-oriented sector.