Сердечно-сосудистые заболевания в контексте социально-экономических приоритетов долгосрочного развития России
The paper presents results of a comprehensive analysis of the cardiovascular diseases (CVD) situation, both in the global and Russian contexts. It introduces original data illustrating the declining mortality rate from CVD, and the diminishing contribution of these diseases to overall mortality rate — globally and, to a larger extent, in developed countries. The paper also analyses the reasons for continuing CVD epidemic in Russia. Based on factual evidence, it argues that those include insufficient expenditures on treating CVD patients, and critically inadequate funding of prevention programmes. Unsatisfactory use of these funds to subsidise Russian regions (without taking into account their actual needs determined by the CVD mortality rate) only makes the problem worse. Through modelling, “average” efficiency of the Russian health care system in reducing CVD mortality was revealed. The paper describes various scenarios for future development of the Russian CVD situation. In the context of innovation-based scenario, the advantages of technological foresight are analysed; specifically, the authors summarise major S&T development trends in the health sector (using data of the Russian S&T Foresight 2030), which could significantly contribute to stopping the CVD epidemic in Russia.