Is a sudden increase of irregularity of sunspot numbers a precursor of a return to low solar activity?
We have recently introduced an irregularity index λ for daily sunspot numbers ISSN, derived from the well-known Lyapunov exponent, that attempts to reflect irregularities in the chaotic process of solar activity. Like the Lyapunov exponent, the irregularity index is computed from the data for different embedding dimensions m (2-32). When m = 2, λ maxima match ISSN maxima of the Schwabe cycle, whereas when m = 3, λ maxima occur at ISSN minima. The patterns of λ as a function of time remain similar from m = 4 to 16: the dynamics of λ change between 1915 and 1935, separating two regimes, one from 1850 to 1915 and the other from 1935 to 2005, in which λ retains a similar structure. A sharp peak occurs at the time of the ISSN minimum between cycles 23 and 24, possibly a precursor of unusual cycle 24 and maybe a new regime change. λ is significantly smaller during the ascending and descending phases of solar cycles. Differences in values of the irregularity index observed for different cycles reflect differences in correlations in sunspot series at a scale much less than the 4-yr sliding window used in computing them; the lifetime of sunspots provides a source of correlation at that time scale. The burst of short-term irregularity evidenced by the strong l-peak at the minimum of cycle 23-24 would reflect a decrease in correlation at the time scale of several days rather than a change in the shape of the cycle.
We define, calculate and analyze irregularity indices λISSN of daily series of the International Sunspot Number ISSN as a function of increasing smoothing from N = 162 to 648 days. The irregularity indices λ are computed within 4-year sliding windows, with embedding dimensions m = 1 and 2. λISSN displays Schwabe cycles with ~5.5-year variations ("half Schwabe variations" HSV). The mean of λISSN undergoes a downward step and the amplitude of its variations strongly decreases around 1930. We observe changes in the ratio R of the mean amplitude of λ peaks at solar cycle minima with respect to peaks at solar maxima as a function of date, embedding dimension and, importantly, smoothing parameter N. We identify two distinct regimes, called Q1 and Q2, defined mainly by the evolution of R as a function of N: Q1, with increasing HSV behavior and R value as N is increased, occurs before 1915–1930; and Q2, with decreasing HSV behavior and R value as N is increased, occurs after ~1975. We attempt to account for these observations with an autoregressive (order 1) model with Poissonian noise and a mean modulated by two sine waves of periods T1 and T2 (T1 = 11 years, and intermediate T2 is tuned to mimic quasi-biennial oscillations QBO). The model can generate both Q1 and Q2 regimes. When m = 1, HSV appears in the absence of T2 variations. When m = 2, Q1 occurs when T2 variations are present, whereas Q2 occurs when T2 variations are suppressed. We propose that the HSV behavior of the irregularity index of ISSN may be linked to the presence of strong QBO before 1915–1930, a transition and their disappearance around 1975, corresponding to a change in regime of solar activity.
Radio-observations allow us to reveal the long-lived (2–5 days) intersunspot sources (ISS), whose centers are often located above the neutral line of the magnetic field separating leading and following parts of a whole active region (the first type of ISS (ISS-I)) or above the neutral line separating magnetic polarities into complex sunspots (the second type of ISS (ISS-II)). ISS-I and ISS-II demonstrate gyrocyclotron or gyrosynchrotron spectra, more dynamic pre-flare behavior than ISS-III with bremsstrahlung in the quiet active regions. The qualitative model of “three magnetic fluxes” explaining the origin of accelerated particles in ISS and their long-lasting existence and spectral features is proposed.
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This paper studies the first differences w(t) of the International Sunspot Numbers daily series, ISSN, over the 1850-2013 time span. The one-day correlations r1 between w(t) and w(t+1) are computed within 4 year sliding windows and found to shift from negative to positive values near the end of Cycle 17. They remain positive during the last Grand Maximum and until ~2009, when they fall to zero. We test an autoregressive process of order 1 (AR(1)) as a model that can reproduce the high frequency component of ISSN: we compute r1 for this AR(1) process, and find that it is negative. Positive values of r1 are found only if the process involves positive correlation: this leads us to suggest that the births of successive spots are positively correlated. We also show that the two-day correlation r2 of ISSN is, as expected, closer to 0 than r1. Finally, we identify two prominent regime changes in ~1915 and ~2009, strengthening previous evidence of major anomalies of solar activity at these dates.
In early 2010 Russia once again entered a turbulent period. From the system of property distribution, to structure of the political elites and relations between the Center and the regions - various spheres of Russian life are in a state of flux. Two major factors are driving this change: oil prices which are unlikely to grow the way they did in the 2000s and the rapidly deteriorating efficiency of governance. Relations between federal and regional elites, as well as public activism, are derived from these two factors and play an important role of their own. Will change take an evolutionary path or is Russia facing another revolution? The book offers a view of the Russian future until 2025 based on thematic scenarios created by an international team of Russia scholars whose expertise range from politics and economics to demographics and foreign policy.
The influence of the length of the sample series of economic dynamics to the correct diagnosis of the structure of autoregressive models. It is proved that the length of the sample uvelichina further than the defined period of economic inertial object correlogram distort the real situation, and autoregression models are wrong structure. All scientific hypotheses tested on a representative sample of daily data in world oil prices over the past five years.
This proceedings publication is a compilation of selected contributions from the “Third International Conference on the Dynamics of Information Systems” which took place at the University of Florida, Gainesville, February 16–18, 2011. The purpose of this conference was to bring together scientists and engineers from industry, government, and academia in order to exchange new discoveries and results in a broad range of topics relevant to the theory and practice of dynamics of information systems. Dynamics of Information Systems: Mathematical Foundation presents state-of-the art research and is intended for graduate students and researchers interested in some of the most recent discoveries in information theory and dynamical systems. Scientists in other disciplines may also benefit from the applications of new developments to their own area of study.
By using superconducting quantum interference device (SQUID) magnetometry, we investigated anisotropic high-field (H less than or similar to 7T) low-temperature (10 K) magnetization response of inhomogeneous nanoisland FeNi films grown by rf sputtering deposition on Sitall (TiO2) glass substrates. In the grown FeNi films, the FeNi layer nominal thickness varied from 0.6 to 2.5 nm, across the percolation transition at the d(c) similar or equal to 1.8 nm. We discovered that, beyond conventional spin-magnetism of Fe21Ni79 permalloy, the extracted out-of-plane magnetization response of the nanoisland FeNi films is not saturated in the range of investigated magnetic fields and exhibits paramagnetic-like behavior. We found that the anomalous out-of-plane magnetization response exhibits an escalating slope with increase in the nominal film thickness from 0.6 to 1.1 nm, however, it decreases with further increase in the film thickness, and then practically vanishes on approaching the FeNi film percolation threshold. At the same time, the in-plane response demonstrates saturation behavior above 1.5-2T, competing with anomalously large diamagnetic-like response, which becomes pronounced at high magnetic fields. It is possible that the supported-metal interaction leads to the creation of a thin charge-transfer (CT) layer and a Schottky barrier at the FeNi film/Sitall (TiO2) interface. Then, in the system with nanoscale circular domains, the observed anomalous paramagnetic-like magnetization response can be associated with a large orbital moment of the localized electrons. In addition, the inhomogeneous nanoisland FeNi films can possess spontaneous ordering of toroidal moments, which can be either of orbital or spin origin. The system with toroidal inhomogeneity can lead to anomalously strong diamagnetic-like response. The observed magnetization response is determined by the interplay between the paramagnetic-and diamagnetic-like contributions.