Measures of uncertainty in market network analysis
A general approach to measure statistical uncertainty of different filtration techniques for market network analysis is proposed. Two measures of statistical uncertainty are introduced and discussed. One is based on conditional risk for multiple decision statistical procedures and another one is based on average fraction of errors. It is shown that for some important cases the second measure is a particular case of the first one. The proposed approach is illustrated by numerical evaluation of statistical uncertainty for popular network structures (minimum spanning tree, planar maximally filtered graph, market graph, maximum cliques and maximum independent sets) in the framework of Gaussian network model of stock market.
A common network representation of the stock market is based on correlations of time series of return fluctuations. It is well known that financial time series have a stochastic nature. Therefore there is uncertainty in inference about filtered structures in market network. Thus market network analysis need to be complemented by estimation of uncertainty of the obtained results. However as far as we know there are no relevant research in the literature. In the present paper we maake the first step in this direction. We propose the approach to measure statistical uncertainty of different market network structures. This approach is based on conditional risk for corresponding multiple decision statistical procedures. The proposed appoach is illustrated by numerical evaluation of statistical ucertainty for popular network structures. Our experimental study validates the possibility of application of the approach for comparison of uncerttainty of different network structures.
Market graph is built on the basis of some similarity measure for financial asset returns. The paper considers two similarity measures: classic Pearson correlation and sign correlation. We study the associated market graphs and compare the conditional risk of the market graph construction for these two measures of similarity. Our main finding is that the conditional risk for the sign correlation is much better than for the Pearson correlation for larger values of threshold for several probabilistic models. In addition, we show that for some model the conditional risk for sign correlation dominates over the conditional risk for Pearson correlation for all values of threshold. These properties make sign correlation a more appropriate measure for the maximum clique analysis.
Problem of construction of the market graph as a multiple decision statistical problem is considered. Detailed description of a optimal unbiased multiple decision statistical procedure is given. This procedure is constructed using the Lehmann’s theory of multiple decision statistical procedures and the conditional tests of the Neyman structures. The equations for thresholds calculation for the tests of the Neyman structure are presented and analyzed.
The paper presents the analysis of the network model referred to as market graph of the BRIC countries stock markets. We construct the stock market graph as follows: each vertex represents a stock, and the vertices are adjacent if the price correlation coefficient between them over a certain period of time is greater than or equal to specified threshold. The market graphs are constructed for different time periods to understand the dynamics of their characteristics such as correlation distribution histogram, mean value and standard deviation, size and structure of the maximum cliques. Our results show that we can split the BRIC countries into two groups. Brazil, Russia and India constitute the first group, China constitutes the second group.
In this paper, we construct a new distribution corresponding to a real noble gas as well as the equation of state for it.
The problem of minimizing the root mean square deviation of a uniform string with clamped ends from an equilibrium position is investigated. It is assumed that the initial conditions are specified and the ends of the string are clamped. The Fourier method is used, which enables the control problem with a partial differential equation to be reduced to a control problem with a denumerable system of ordinary differential equations. For the optimal control problem in the l2 space obtained, it is proved that the optimal synthesis contains singular trajectories and chattering trajectories. For the initial problem of the optimal control of the vibrations of a string it is also proved that there is a unique solution for which the optimal control has a denumerable number of switchings in a finite time interval.
For a class of optimal control problems and Hamiltonian systems generated by these problems in the space l 2, we prove the existence of extremals with a countable number of switchings on a finite time interval. The optimal synthesis that we construct in the space l 2 forms a fiber bundle with piecewise smooth two-dimensional fibers consisting of extremals with a countable number of switchings over an infinite-dimensional basis of singular extremals.
This proceedings publication is a compilation of selected contributions from the “Third International Conference on the Dynamics of Information Systems” which took place at the University of Florida, Gainesville, February 16–18, 2011. The purpose of this conference was to bring together scientists and engineers from industry, government, and academia in order to exchange new discoveries and results in a broad range of topics relevant to the theory and practice of dynamics of information systems. Dynamics of Information Systems: Mathematical Foundation presents state-of-the art research and is intended for graduate students and researchers interested in some of the most recent discoveries in information theory and dynamical systems. Scientists in other disciplines may also benefit from the applications of new developments to their own area of study.