Экономические последствия избыточного веса: оценка потерь валового внутреннего продукта России

Вопросы экономики. 2026.

Kolosnitsyna M., Deeva A.

This article presents the assessment of gross domestic product (GDP) losses in Russia resulting from mortality attributable to overweight-related diseases. The study is performed on multiple data sources, including overweight-related mortality rates, demographic indicators and labour market characteristics, i.e., employment structure, total mortality and population size subject to age and gender, and also Russia’s GDP in 2023 with its forecasted values. Economic losses in both current GDP (2023) and potential future GDP due to premature mortality from overweight are estimated using a methodology based on the human capital loss approach. The methodology is corrected to incorporate forecasted future GDP growth, and a social discount rate is applied to adjust future GDP values to the base year.

The estimates indicate that the total amount of potentially foregone GDP due to premature mortality among the employed population in 2023 reaches approximately 1,25 trillion roubles (as in the prices of the year 2023), which is equivalent to 0,7% of GDP and 14% of government health expenditures in the corresponding year. A substantial disparity in economic losses by gender is observed: males’ input accounts for about 73% of total losses, explained by their higher mortality in working ages together with greater labour force participation rate. The main share of the long-term economic burden is attributable to mortality among individuals aged 35–59 years. The findings emphasize the significant impact of premature overweight-related mortality on the healthcare budget and the overall economy. This study contributes to the literature by providing an estimate of the economic costs of premature mortality connected with weight in Russia in terms of foregone GDP.

Keywords: человеческий капитал, ожирение, obesity, социальная ставка дисконтирования, social discount rate, стоимость человеческой жизни, resource-based approach, human capital, value of a human life, ресурсный метод

Publication based on the results of: The Impact of External Shocks and Restrictions on the Strategies of Economic Agents in the Context of the New Reality (2025)