Two Regimes in the Regularity of Sunspot Number
Sunspot number WN displays quasi-periodical variations that undergo regime changes. These irregularities could indicate a chaotic system and be measured by Lyapunov exponents. We define a functional l (an “irregularity index”) that is close to the (maximal) Lyapunov exponent for dynamical systems and well defined for series with a random component: this allows one to work with sunspot numbers. We compute l for the daily WN from 1850 to 2012 within 4-year sliding windows: l exhibit sharp maxima at solar minima and secondary maxima at solar maxima. This pattern is reflected in the ratio R of the amplitudes of the main vs secondary peaks. Two regimes have alternated in the past 150 years, R1 from 1850 to 1915 (large l and R values) and R2 from 1935 to 2005 (shrinking difference between main and secondary maxima, R values between 1 and 2). We build an autoregressive model consisting of Poisson noise plus an 11-yr cycle, and compute its irregularity index. The transition from R1 to R2 can be reproduced by strengthening the autocorrelation a of the model series. The features of the two regimes are stable for model and WN with respect to embedding dimension and delay. Near the time of the last solar minimum (~2008), the irregularity index exhibits a peak similar to the peaks observed before 1915. This might signal a regime change back from R2 to R1 and the onset of a significant decrease of solar activity.
The irregularity index λ is applied to the high-frequency content of daily sunspot numbers ISSN. This λ is a modification of the standard maximal Lyapunov exponent. It is here computed as a function of embedding dimension m, within four-year time windows centered at the maxima of Schwabe cycles. The λ(m) curves form separate clusters (pre-1923 and post-1933). This supports a regime transition and narrows its occurrence to cycle 16, preceding the growth of activity leading to the Modern Maximum. The two regimes are reproduced by a simple autoregressive process AR(1), with the mean of Poisson noise undergoing 11 yr modulation. The autocorrelation a of the process (linked to sunspot lifetime) is a ≈ 0.8 for 18501923 and ≈0.95 for 19332013. The AR(1) model suggests that groups of spots appear with a Poisson rate and disappear at a constant rate. We further applied the irregularity index to the daily sunspot group number series for the northern and southern hemispheres, provided by the Greenwich Royal Observatory (RGO), in order to study a possible desynchronization. Correlations between the north and south λ(m) curves vary quite strongly with time and indeed show desynchronization. This may reflect a slow change in the dimension of an underlying dynamical system. The ISSN and RGO series of group numbers do not imply an identical mechanism, but both uncover a regime change at a similar time. Computation of the irregularity index near the maximum of cycle 24 will help in checking whether yet another regime change is under way.
The introduction describes the concept in the "hard"and "soft" sciences.
Der vorliegende Bank ist einer fuenf jaehrigen Projektarbeit zu Synergie-Konzepten. Synergie ist ein Schlüsselbegriff in Wissenschaft und Gesellschaft. Wie wird er historisch und gegenwärtig verwendet? Was zeichnet ihn als produktives Paradigma in interdisziplinären Forschungs- und Praxisfeldern aus? Als Modell einer holistischen Beschreibung der Wirklichkeit macht die synergetische Perspektive die aristotelische Einsicht fruchtbar, dass das Ganze mehr ist als bloß die Summe seiner Teile. Allgemeine Theorien des Zusammenwirkens (synérgeia) nehmen hier ihren Ausgangspunkt. Mit Blick auf kooperative Interaktionen und dynamische Strukturbildungen in Natur, Kunst und Gesellschaft untersuchen die Beiträge philosophie-, wissenschafts- und kulturgeschichtliche Konstellationen, in denen Synergie-Konzepte besondere Konjunktur haben, und fragen nach dem Zukunftspotenzial dieser transdisziplinären Denkfigur.
We define, calculate and analyze irregularity indices λISSN of daily series of the International Sunspot Number ISSN as a function of increasing smoothing from N = 162 to 648 days. The irregularity indices λ are computed within 4-year sliding windows, with embedding dimensions m = 1 and 2. λISSN displays Schwabe cycles with ~5.5-year variations ("half Schwabe variations" HSV). The mean of λISSN undergoes a downward step and the amplitude of its variations strongly decreases around 1930. We observe changes in the ratio R of the mean amplitude of λ peaks at solar cycle minima with respect to peaks at solar maxima as a function of date, embedding dimension and, importantly, smoothing parameter N. We identify two distinct regimes, called Q1 and Q2, defined mainly by the evolution of R as a function of N: Q1, with increasing HSV behavior and R value as N is increased, occurs before 1915–1930; and Q2, with decreasing HSV behavior and R value as N is increased, occurs after ~1975. We attempt to account for these observations with an autoregressive (order 1) model with Poissonian noise and a mean modulated by two sine waves of periods T1 and T2 (T1 = 11 years, and intermediate T2 is tuned to mimic quasi-biennial oscillations QBO). The model can generate both Q1 and Q2 regimes. When m = 1, HSV appears in the absence of T2 variations. When m = 2, Q1 occurs when T2 variations are present, whereas Q2 occurs when T2 variations are suppressed. We propose that the HSV behavior of the irregularity index of ISSN may be linked to the presence of strong QBO before 1915–1930, a transition and their disappearance around 1975, corresponding to a change in regime of solar activity.
The book describes the concepts of chaos and order in the "hard" and "soft" sciences.
The authors propose new approach to self-organization of complex distributed systems in logistics. That approach is based on combination of multi-agent paradigm with constraint satisfaction techniques. The proposed solution expresses major features of Swarm Intelligence approach and replaces traditional stochastic adaptation of the swarm of the autonomous agents by constraint-driven adaptation.
The monograph is devoted to the consideration of complex systems from the position of the end the 21st century. The considerable breakthrough in the understanding of complex systems is comprehensively analyzed. Such a breakthrough is connected with the use of the newest methods of nonlinear dynamics, of organization of the modern computational experiments. The book is meant for specialists in different fields of natural sciences and the humanities as well as for all readers who are interested in the recent advancements in science.
A model for organizing cargo transportation between two node stations connected by a railway line which contains a certain number of intermediate stations is considered. The movement of cargo is in one direction. Such a situation may occur, for example, if one of the node stations is located in a region which produce raw material for manufacturing industry located in another region, and there is another node station. The organization of freight traﬃc is performed by means of a number of technologies. These technologies determine the rules for taking on cargo at the initial node station, the rules of interaction between neighboring stations, as well as the rule of distribution of cargo to the ﬁnal node stations. The process of cargo transportation is followed by the set rule of control. For such a model, one must determine possible modes of cargo transportation and describe their properties. This model is described by a ﬁnite-dimensional system of diﬀerential equations with nonlocal linear restrictions. The class of the solution satisfying nonlocal linear restrictions is extremely narrow. It results in the need for the “correct” extension of solutions of a system of diﬀerential equations to a class of quasi-solutions having the distinctive feature of gaps in a countable number of points. It was possible numerically using the Runge–Kutta method of the fourth order to build these quasi-solutions and determine their rate of growth. Let us note that in the technical plan the main complexity consisted in obtaining quasi-solutions satisfying the nonlocal linear restrictions. Furthermore, we investigated the dependence of quasi-solutions and, in particular, sizes of gaps (jumps) of solutions on a number of parameters of the model characterizing a rule of control, technologies for transportation of cargo and intensity of giving of cargo on a node station.
Let k be a field of characteristic zero, let G be a connected reductive algebraic group over k and let g be its Lie algebra. Let k(G), respectively, k(g), be the field of k- rational functions on G, respectively, g. The conjugation action of G on itself induces the adjoint action of G on g. We investigate the question whether or not the field extensions k(G)/k(G)^G and k(g)/k(g)^G are purely transcendental. We show that the answer is the same for k(G)/k(G)^G and k(g)/k(g)^G, and reduce the problem to the case where G is simple. For simple groups we show that the answer is positive if G is split of type A_n or C_n, and negative for groups of other types, except possibly G_2. A key ingredient in the proof of the negative result is a recent formula for the unramified Brauer group of a homogeneous space with connected stabilizers. As a byproduct of our investigation we give an affirmative answer to a question of Grothendieck about the existence of a rational section of the categorical quotient morphism for the conjugating action of G on itself.
Let G be a connected semisimple algebraic group over an algebraically closed field k. In 1965 Steinberg proved that if G is simply connected, then in G there exists a closed irreducible cross-section of the set of closures of regular conjugacy classes. We prove that in arbitrary G such a cross-section exists if and only if the universal covering isogeny Ĝ → G is bijective; this answers Grothendieck's question cited in the epigraph. In particular, for char k = 0, the converse to Steinberg's theorem holds. The existence of a cross-section in G implies, at least for char k = 0, that the algebra k[G]G of class functions on G is generated by rk G elements. We describe, for arbitrary G, a minimal generating set of k[G]G and that of the representation ring of G and answer two Grothendieck's questions on constructing generating sets of k[G]G. We prove the existence of a rational (i.e., local) section of the quotient morphism for arbitrary G and the existence of a rational cross-section in G (for char k = 0, this has been proved earlier); this answers the other question cited in the epigraph. We also prove that the existence of a rational section is equivalent to the existence of a rational W-equivariant map T- - - >G/T where T is a maximal torus of G and W the Weyl group.