И все-таки они безопаснее!
The Proceedings of reports presented at the 12th International Conference on Road Organization and Safety in Big Cities (St. Petersburg, 28-30 September 2016) covers a wide range of theoretical and practical issues related to road deaths prevention (up to “zero” level) – conceptual, legal, organizational, technological, informational, etc. Following the goal it builds up the knowledge base on the space (complete set) of factors affecting the level of road safety, as well as studies the preventive measures for potential causes of road crash fatalities. The research area includes all levels of the state system hierarchy related to road safety: from the first (the road) level, revealing the final causes of road crashes such as speeding, driving in the opposite direction, etc., to the upper government management levels that can bear the root causes of road crash fatalities and casualties. Subjects of research include general and regional road safety systems, technologies (techniques, methods, mechanisms) for their efficient organization and management, as well as the organization of various subsystems, functionally connected by the system-wide goal. The articles in these Proceedings focus on various subjects, such as the quality of legislative and regulatory issues ensuring system wide activities on road deaths prevention and their rigorous practical implementation; issues of development of transport infrastructure, including bicycles; issues of intellectualization of systems and processes, formalization (including mathematical) of modeling and design tasks of various objects in the system, their effectiveness assessment and sustaining the latter in the operational mode; issues of justification and practical application of the mechanisms of formation of the main functional properties of the systems that make up the quality and create possibilities for on-line monitoring of the functioning processes and prediction of their condition; issues of GIS modeling of road networks, modeling of transport accidents, prevention of drinking and driving, etc. The Conference holders believe that these materials will help find solutions and promote a transfer of the current road safety practices in Russia to a rigorous system approach, to methods of continuous (in CALS-technologies terms) modeling (improvement) of the road crash deaths prevention systems – the only generally recognized scientific tool for efficient complex systems study, to the development of a sustainable knowledge base and targeted experts systems – a tool to manage competence, responsibility and loyal motivation of personnel, and ultimately - to saving lives on the roads.
The paper studies a problem of optimal insurer’s choice of a risk-sharing policy in a dynamic risk model, so-called Cramer-Lundberg process, over infinite time interval. Additional constraints are imposed on residual risks of insureds: on mean value or with probability one. An optimal control problem of minimizing a functional of the form of variation coefficient is solved. We show that: in the first case the optimum is achieved at stop loss insurance policies, in the second case the optimal insurance is a combination of stop loss and deductible policies. It is proved that the obtained results can be easily applied to problems with other optimization criteria: maximization of long-run utility and minimization of probability of a deviation from mean trajectory.